Let’s just face facts – the Fall Swing FedExCup Fall has not been kind to us, at least in terms of hitting outright winners. We need to fix that.
The Zozo Championship is the perfect opportunity to get right, as it’s been a good spot for big names to get victory before turning the page to 2025. In just five short years, the list of winners reads a little like this – Tiger Woods, Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley, Collin Morikawa. A who’s who of ball-striking studs.
That should, theoretically, make this one a bit easier to handicap. Our experts are all very high on one big-time ball-striker at the top of the board.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds of Narashino Country Club, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Golf Podcast, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2024 Zozo Championship.
Zozo Championship picks 2024: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Kurt Kitayama (22-1, FanDuel) — Kitayama has put on a tee-to-green masterclass over his last two starts. If not for an absolutely ICE cold putter, he may have won one of them. Let’s take a chance on him turning that part of his game around as he continues to strike the hell out of the ball.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Sungjae Im (14-1, FanDuel) — Maybe I’m just reaching for the most generous odds from the big four this week. It’s possible. Sungjae’s just one of a handful to play at this course since the event’s inception, including the Olympics, and enters play fresh off one of the strongest performances from the International side at the Presidents Cup. Plus, he finished top 12 in nine of his past 12 starts. Consistently getting reps at the top of the leaderboard should facilitate a breakthrough eventually.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Sungjae Im (14-1, FanDuel) — This is a top-heavy field, but Sungjae comes in with a combination of solid odds and form. He’s sixth in both strokes-gained/tee-to-green and strokes-gained/putting over the last 50 rounds of ShotLink data – via datagolf – and has two top-12 finishes at this course in his last three starts.
Keith Stewart, Read The Line: Kurt Kitayama (22-1, FanDuel) — When Kurt Kitayama changed coaches to Chris Como, he caught our attention. After all, he had a signature win at API in 2023 and was trending. Since the switch, his above average ball-striking has turned elite. He’s gained over 12 strokes tee-to-green against the field in each of his first two FedEx Fall starts. The putter is a definite concern, but the Zozo has a history of below average putters winning. Accordia Golf Narashino CC is a ball-striker’s paradise and I’m not sure if there’s anyone hitting the ball better on tour.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Sungjae Im (14-1, FanDuel) — The Prince is overdue for another win. He also has a win in 2024 in China, so he’s used to traveling to Asia and getting it done.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Rico Hoey (65-1, FanDuel) — Given how well he’s playing and this price, you’d be foolish to not take one more ride on the Hoey train. The 29-year-old gained over seven strokes tee-to-green and nearly five with his putter, and now he comes to Narashino which features Bentgrass greens, his favorite surface. Sure, the main concern is that he’s never played in this event and the Zozo has been a place where big names thrive, but I think we have to strike while the iron his hot before he starts getting priced in the 50-1 and under range.
Andy Lack, Inside Golf podcast: Sungjae Im (14-1, FanDuel) — Sungjae Im remains one of the most well-rounded players in the game, and it is only a matter of time before he cracks through the winner’s circle. Im has a third, 29th, and 12th in all three of his appearances at Narashino, and he remains one of the better Bentgrass putters an overall drivers in this entire field.
Past results: The panel finished the summer hot. Brandon Gdula picked up his first outright win of the year at the FedEx St. Jude, correctly predicting Hideki Matsuyama’s victory at 25-1. The week before that, Stephen Hennessey and Christopher Powers both nailed Aaron Rai’s win at the Wyndham at 35-1, giving them each three outright winners in 2024. Before that, it was Pat Mayo cashing in on Scottie Scheffler’s gold medal at the Olympics (+400) for his third outright this year.
Listen to Golf Digest’s weekly betting podcast, “The Loop,” (below) where we interview the industry’s leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to “The Loop” wherever you get your podcasts!
Zozo Championship picks 2024: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Caddie: Harry Hall (60-1, FanDuel) — Hall now has three top-12 finishes, including a victory, in his last six starts, making all but one cut along the way. His ball-striking has been his strength throughout that stretch, and his putting has been more than solid, too. That combo should give him a great chance to succeed at the Zozo, a tournament he finished 21st in last year in his debut.
Mayo: J.J. Spaun (45-1, FanDuel) — The supreme ball-striking continued in Vegas. But the one awful round sunk him again. Eventually he’ll put it all together for four rounds. Will it be this week? Statistically, unlikely. But there’s a chance he can build off his T-6 in this event a year ago.
Gdula: Doug Ghim (40-1, FanDuel) — Big names tend to win here, so I don’t want to overextend with too many long shots this week. Ghim is a top-10 tee-to-green player over the last 50 rounds and most recently finished solo second at the Shriners on the back of field-leading approach play.
Stewart: Gary Woodland (75-1, FanDuel) — Gary Woodland just earned his first top 10 since returning from brain surgery. That was after a top 16 at the Sanderson Farms. The powerful ball-striker is a perfect fit for Accordia Golf Narashino CC. One of the best mid and long iron players in the field, Woodland’s ball-striking has been great. The secret to Gary’s success (or lack thereof) has always been the putter. A switch to his flat stick practice routine gave him a +3.7 performance in Vegas. If he repeats half that gain on the greens this week, Woodland will be in serious contention on Sunday.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Gary Woodland (75-1, FanDuel) — Gary gained strokes putting last week, y’all. We must fire him up on a ball-striker’s paradise, where we’ve seen poor putters succeed in the past.
Powers, Golf Digest: Gary Woodland (75-1, FanDuel) — Elite ball-striker, poor putter – that seems to be a decent recipe for success at Narashino (looking at you, Hideki Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley and Collin Morikawa). G Dubs struck it beautifully in Las Vegas and even gained with his flat stick. Why not Gary? Nobody would deserve it more after the few years he’s had. Plus, he fared quite well here in his lone start in 2019, finishing inside the top five.
Lack: J.J. Spaun (45-1, FanDuel) — J.J. Spaun continues to play some solid golf this Fall swing, and he is coming off a 34th at the Shriners where he gained over two strokes on approach despite catching the wrong side of the weather edge. The former Valero Texas Open winner has also recorded a sixth-place finish in his last appearance at Narashino, one I expect him to improve upon this year.
RELATED: Zozo Championship DFS picks 2024: This star will break out in Japan
Zozo Championship picks 2024: Players We’re Fading
Caddie: Sahith Theegala (18-1, FanDuel) — I expect Theegala to have a huge breakout season in 2025, but I just don’t love this course fit for him.
Mayo: Justin Thomas (18-1, BetRivers) — A rebound year should be in the works, but it’s doubtful it starts before the calendar flips when he hasn’t played a competitive event since preseason NFL was on TV.
Gdula: Sahith Theegala (18-1, FanDuel) — Among the seven favorites, Theegala is the worst of the group in recent tee-to-green play (albeit 10th for the full field) and isn’t the most consistent putter. He’s played fairly well here, but he’s still at the bottom of the list for me with the other options at the top of the board.
Stewart: Min Woo Lee (28-1, FanDuel) — A successful blueprint for the Zozo includes impeccable tee-to-green play. Min Woo Lee is a top-five player off the tee in the world. That’s not hyperbole, but his approach game is the polar opposite. Lee has lost strokes with his iron game in seven of his last nine starts. You couldn’t miss it in Montreal at the Presidents Cup. Walking inside the ropes you could see Min Woo does not have the same level of confidence in his irons as he does with the driver. The Zozo has five par 3s, long par 4s, and a bunch of wedge opportunities. A lack of scoring ability on approach is a significant hurdle at this tournament.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Sahith Theegala (18-1, FanDuel) — Sahith’s inaccuracy off the tee might cost him around here. I don’t think it’s the right course for him.
Powers, Golf Digest: Justin Thomas (18-1, BetRivers) — Need to see some signs of life again before hopping back in on JT at odds with a “teen” at the end of them.
Lack: Sahith Theegala (18-1, FanDuel) — While Sahith Theegala has played some solid golf at Narashino in the past, I still have considerable concerns about his approach play. Theegala ranks below average in SG/approach, even in this small field, and he was shaky in representing the Americans at the Presidents Cup.
RELATED: WM Phoenix Open announces changes after fan, safety incidents
Zozo Championship picks 2024: Matchups
Caddie: Beau Hossler (-120) over Si Woo Kim(DraftKings) — Hossler, despite his erratic driving, has been excellent at Narashino, finishing runner-up a year ago and 16th the year before that. He’s been playing all Fall and has found some nice form. Kim, meanwhile, has played in only the Presidents Cup since August, and while he did shine in Canada, I have concerns over the lack of reps.
Mayo: Kevin Yu (+105) over K.H. Lee (Bet365) — Yu’s been quite solid for the past 12 months, even notching his first career win a few weeks back. K.H. Lee gained strokes on approach for the first time since June last week. No reason for Yu to be an underdog at the Zozo.
Gdula: Eric Cole (-115) over Taylor Moore (FanDuel) — Moore’s irons have been brutal since April while Cole has ranked 12th in the whole field in approach play over the last three months. Cole also finished T-2 here last year.
Stewart: Jhonattan Vegas (+100) over Max Homa (Bet365) — Can Max Homa regain his confidence with the driver? Homa went 11 straight events over the summer losing strokes off the tee. A missed cut at the Procore, a mediocre Presidents Cup, and we still have not seen that confidence return. Jhonny Vegas has always been a great pick on difficult ball-striking layouts. His win at the 3M this summer exemplifies his edge when trouble lurks off the tee. And around the green. On a tight, tree-lined layout, I’ll take the Vegas value over the Homa hiccups.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Maverick McNealy (+100) over Min Woo Lee (Bet365) — McNealy’s plodding approach should play well here, as opposed to Min Woo’s wild style. I like this one.
Powers, Golf Digest: Sungjae Im (+115) over Hideki Matsuyama (DraftKings) — While Hideki has been great at this golf course, so has Sungjae Im. And they’ve both been excellent over the last handful of months. This just feels like a much more even match than the book is making it out to be, so I’ll happily roll with Im as a juicy dog.
Lack: J.J. Spaun (-130) over Seamus Power (DraftKings) — This is an easy one, as I’m rolling with one of my favorite longshot plays on the board over Seamus Power, a player I have considerable concerns with. Power is coming off a disappointing missed cut at the Shriners where he lost over a stroke on approach despite catching the right side of the weather advantage. Spaun, on the other hand, recorded another top-35 finish from the worst side of the draw and now returns to a golf course where he finished sixth at last year.
Matchup Results from the Zozo Championship: Lack: Hossler (-130) over Mitchell); Caddie: 1 for 1 (McNealy (+100) over McCarty); Mayo: 1 for 1 (Spaun (-110) over Vegas); Hennessey: PUSH (Hall (+110) over Kitayama); Gdula: 0 for 1; Powers: 0 for 1; Stewart: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Lack 25-12-2 (up 9.89 units); Gdula: 22-14-3 (up 5.24 units); Caddie: 23-15-0 (up 5.84 units); Hennessey: 19-14-6 (up 3.47 units); Powers: 16-18-4 (down 2.34 units); Mayo: 18-20-1 (down 2.48 units); Stewart: 15-22-2 (down 8.01 units)
Zozo Championship picks 2024: Top 10s
Caddie: Mac Meissner (+360, DraftKings) — Meissner has gained strokes tee-to-green and on approach in eight consecutive starts but does not have a top 10 to show for it. That changes this week.
Mayo: Doug Ghim (+250, Bet365) — Hopefully he didn’t leave everything he had in Vegas with his second-place finish. Great ball-strikers have dominated this event over the past five years, and while the chipping and putting are rarely around tour average, few question his ball-striking.
Gdula: Si Woo Kim (+280, FanDuel) — This is a good course to go after great tee-to-green players, and that’s what Kim does best. He’s eighth in the field over the last 50 rounds in SG/tee-to-green and has striped his irons in two starts since late August.
Stewart: Beau Hossler (+300, DraftKings) — In two starts at the Zozo Championship, Beau Hossler has finished T-16 and T-2. Hossler enters the tournament in better form than the previous two years. A betting favorite all fall, his average SG/total in these last three starts is 8.4 strokes. We have all been waiting for Beau to break through for that first win. I believe he will get close again this week.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Matt Kuchar (+1100, Bet365) — Kuch has been playing some great golf, and this is the type of course where his lack of length won’t hurt him.
Powers, Golf Digest: Luke List (+1000, DraftKings) — List had is best week of the Fall tee-to-green- and off-the-tee-wise last week at the Shriners, and has marginally gotten better with his irons in each of those three starts. Zozo feels like the perfect get-right spot as it accentuates what he does best – ball-strike the course to death and putt just OK.
Lack: Kurt Kitayama (+360, DraftKings) — Kurt Kitayama is coming off a ninth-place finish at the Shriners where he gained 2.3 strokes off the tee and 9.3 strokes on approach. This one was one of Kitayama’s best approach performances of his career, and he has now gained over six strokes on approach in each of his last two starts. The former Arnold Palmer Invitational winner should thrive on this second-shot golf course.
Top-10 results from the Zozo Championship: Hennessey: 1 for 1 (J.T. Poston +450); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Hennessey: 13 for 39 (up 69.35 units); Gdula: 7 for 39 (down 7.1 units); Mayo: 7 for 39 (down 7.5 units); Powers: 7 for 39 (down 9.1 units); Stewart: 7 for 39 (down 9.42 units); Caddie: 7 for 38 (down 10.93 units); Lack: 7 for 39 (down 16.05 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports
This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
