The stats show that Quail Hollow rewards a very specific type of player
Since Quail Hollow hosts an annual PGA Tour event, we have a lot of data on what it takes to succeed there. Look at past winners of the event and you’ll notice that great players tend to rise to the top more often than at other courses. That’s because elite players tend to excel in the three areas that Quail Hollow rewards the most. With the help of Arccos Pro Insights, here’s why these three stats are key to success at this year’s PGA Championship.
Driving distance: Quail Hollow favours long hitters more than any other course on the PGA Tour. At more than 7,500 yards, the course is much longer than the average PGA Tour venue, meaning it will be even tougher for shorter players to contend. The penalty for missing the fairway is not high, especially for a major championship, and even the long hitters will hit driver a lot. For every shot gained off the tee from the players who finished in the top 10 in recent years at Quail Hollow, 68 percent is because of distance and only 32 percent is because of accuracy.
Approaches from 175-225 yards: Given the length of the course, players will have a lot of approach shots of between 175 and 225 yards. Players who finished in the top 10 in recent years at Quail Hollow gained more than 50 percent of their total strokes gained/approach shots from this range, which is incredibly high. Usually, players who are good in this range also have a lot of speed and hit the ball very high, so those who can hit it high have a big advantage at Quail Hollow. There are also many shots outside 250 yards into the greens due to the length of the par 5s, and again, big hitters have another advantage here.
Sand saves: Since players will have more mid and long irons into the greens, players are going to miss more greens than normal, making short game critical to success. Greenside bunker play, specifically, is crucial at Quail Hollow because of how many bunkers surround the greens and how well placed they are. On 12 holes, there is a greater-than-50-percent chance that a player will have a greenside bunker shot throughout the week, which is way higher than most courses. On the first hole, for example, the stats say that players are virtually certain to have a bunker shot during the week.
Players I like at quail hollow
Given their strength in these areas, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and Bryson DeChambeau have the skill set to play well at Quail Hollow. Rory has won multiple times at the course, and outside his length and long-iron play, he has gained nearly a shot per round on the greens in his past three starts at Quail Hollow. Xander, the defending champion, finished second in his past two starts at the course. Bryson’s speed will serve him well if he manages the sidehill lies you can often get. My “sleeper” picks are Gary Woodland and Byeong Hun An [above]. They are some of the longest players off the tee and have played well there in the past.
Edoardo Molinari, a former US Amateur champion and three-time winner on the DP World Tour, is Arccos Golf’s chief data strategist.
Photos: Getty Images
