Say what you want about the state of professional golf, but we love The American Express. As the PGA Tour decreases field sizes, this is a rare week with 156 players competing for a PGA Tour victory and all the perks that come with it. Golf bettors have a chance at a big payday, too, as the old Bob Hope has translated to some of the biggest odds payouts on winners in recent history.
Of course, you remember Nick Dunlap’s unlikely victory as an amateur last year at 300-1 odds. There was Hudson Swafford (175-1) in 2022, Andrew Landry (200-1) in 2020 and Adam Long (600-1) in 2019 to name a few (odds per the Golf Betting System).
The Golf Digest betting panel dishes out our favorite longshot picks and complete analysis below, which includes a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds of PGA West, plus experts picks from Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
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Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of The American Express:
The American Express picks 2025: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions 
Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Cameron Young (40-1, FanDuel) — Cam is on a mission to prove he’s a PGA Tour winner. It pisses him off. He skipped the opening night of his TGL week for this. He knows it’s another great chance to win. If you bet him at these odds all season, you’ll make money.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Si Woo Kim (40-1, FanDuel) — Si Woo’s a former champ with three top-11 finishes in four career starts at The American Express. And there were a lot of positives to take away from his missed cut at Sony last week. Despite only playing two rounds he was still eighth in strokes gained/tee to green, easily the most per round of anyone in the field. He just happened to lose six strokes on the green over those two rounds. While awful putting isn’t new to Si Woo it would be at PGA West: Over his four appearances he’s never lost strokes putting to the field.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Patrick Cantlay (18-1, FanDuel) — Cantlay has had success at pro-am setups in the past and has three top-10 finishes here in the last five years (though none in the last two). Cantlay knocked off rust while finishing T-15 at The Sentry, and the fact that he lost approach in that event is statistically a good sign for a bounce back for the long-term great iron player. He’s also a good Poa putter.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Harry Hall (45-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Fresh off two top 10s in Hawaii, Harry Hall has been a scoring machine. He was 35-under par on the islands! A Las Vegas resident and UNLV grad, Hall is very comfortable in the desert. Harry has previous playing experience at The American Express, so he knows the courses and his putter couldn’t be hotter. Ranked first in Birdie or Better percentage for the field, watch his flatstick lead him to his second PGA Tour victory in less than a year.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Harry Hall (45-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — The big-hitting Englishman is coming off to great weeks in a row, and someone who lives in the desert (Vegas), he should be licking his chops. He’s third in SG/total and third in BoB% over the past 36 rounds, per RickRunGood.com. Hall is ready to win in an elite field.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Max Greyserman (35-1, Bet365) — Greyserman’s T-24 in the 58-man Sentry field is hardly impressive on paper, but it was really just a bad Sunday that kept him from finishing in the top 10. Prior to that he had gone second and fourth in his last two starts, giving him four top-four finishes on the PGA Tour since July. He can hang in a birdie fest with the best of ‘em, as evidenced by his 22 under total at the World Wide Technology this past November. He’s gained strokes putting in six straight events which bodes well for a piece-of-sh—putting contest like The American Express (Jon Rahm’s words, not mine). His time is coming. Let’s hope it’s this week.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Sam Burns (18-1, Bet365) — Sam Burns is one of the most prolific birdie-makers in this field and certainly due for a victory. The five-time PGA Tour winner is coming off an eighth-place finish at the Sentry, where he gained 3.8 strokes off the tee and 2.9 strokes putting, and he returns to a golf course where he has recorded four top-20 finishes in six appearances.
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Past results: The panel had a total of 15 outright winners in 2024, besting our 2023 total of 13. We also had a strong season of matchups and our very own Stephen Hennessey absolutely cleaned up in the top-10 market. Let’s keep it rolling in ‘25.
Listen to Golf Digest’s weekly betting podcast, “The Loop,” (above) where we interview the industry’s leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to “The Loop” wherever you get your podcasts!   
The American Express picks 2025: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win 
Caddie: Rico Hoey (141-1, Bet365) — This kid can bomb the ball and make birdies in bunches. He can absolutely get in contention, and that’s all you can hope for at this number.
Mayo: Jhonattan Vegas (101-1, Bet365) — There’s plenty of tournament history for the former champ who started the year out on fire at Sentry, leading all players in approach. Much like Nick Taylor, when you bet Vegas be prepared for an absolute flame out—especially with the putter. In the past 12 months Vegas has played in 17 measured events. He has lost strokes putting in 23 of them. However in the four where he did gain, it was an average of +3.2 SG/putting. If you catch him on one of those weeks, then the ball-striking is primed to contend at a big number.
Gdula: Jason Day (70-1, FanDuel) — Day has the putter to win at an event where you need to go 23-under or better to win pretty much every year. Day’s a top-three long-term Poa putter in this field, and his up-and-down irons give him a single-week ceiling you need to win on the PGA Tour.
Stewart: Mac Meissner (80-1, BetMGM) — If you want to win The American Express, you have to create birdie opportunities. Mac Meissner is a wonderful wedge player who gained over six strokes on approach at the Sony Open. Fact is, Meissner does that a bunch with his scoring clubs. Positive with the putter in two of his last three starts, there’s an opportunity for him in Palm Desert. Continue to score like he has shown in his rookie year, and this player can do more than just contend this weekend.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Eric Cole (70-1, FanDuel) — I loved Cole’s fight last Sunday. He had a demoralizing double on the sixth hole, hitting a cart path resulting in a penalty. He rebounded with three birdies in a row to get back into the tournament. If we’re talking about an approach and birdie-fest, I’ll go back to the Eric Cole well.
Powers, Golf Digest: Michael Thorbjornsen (110-1, Bet365) — Thor withdrew last week and did not give a reason. He’s had some injury history already in his young career, including some back stuff, which should give me pause. But at 110-1, it’s worth the dice roll for the former Stanford product who is coming off consecutive top 10s. If he’s giving it a go, I have to assume he’s healthy enough to play and, ideally, contend.
Lack: Eric Cole (70-1, FanDuel) — Eric Cole is coming off a solo fifth last week at the Sony where he gained over five strokes on approach, and five strokes with the putter. Cole’s elite combination of wedge play and putting from five to 15 feet should play dividends this week at one of the easier events on the PGA Tour.
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The American Express picks 2025: Players We’re Fading 
Caddie: Tony Finau (22-1, FanDuel) — I need to see it a little more from Finau in contention before I’m ready to think he’s fully recovered and ready to win.
Mayo: Kurt Kitayama (25-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Kurt’s great at everything. But I can’t quite understand why he’s listed over about 15 other names on the odds board.
Gdula: Tony Finau (22-1, FanDuel) — I like Finau in a vacuum this week, but the odds are just a bit too short compared to the other names around him. Finau’s putting splits on Poa are also weak compared to the other favorites.
Stewart: Tony Finau (22-1, FanDuel) — Tony Finau missed a couple of late 2024 starts due to a knee injury. Finau finished 15th at The Sentry, but he lost strokes tee to green for the tournament. Some might say follow Finau’s flatstick, but that has never been a consistent part of his game. With no top 15s in his last three starts in Palm Desert and the knee injury, I’ll take Tony another time further into the season.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: JJ Spaun (40-1, BetRivers) — Gaining over two strokes on approach per round to the field wasn’t enough for him to win. In a much better field, I have my doubts that this is a fair number.
JFHenebry/Courtesy of the club false Public PGA West: Stadium Course La Quinta, CA 4 26 Panelists
- 100 Greatest Public
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Originally private, the Stadium Course (the original 18 at PGA West) was among the rota of courses for the old Bob Hope Desert Classic until some pros, objecting to its difficulty, petitioned to remove it. (It’s now back.) It’s Pete Dye at his rambunctious best, with a finish mimicking his later design at TPC Sawgrass: a gambling par-5 16th (called San Andreas Fault), a short par-3 17th to an island green and an intimidating par-4 18th with water all the way to the green. Though hideous in its difficulty and aesthetics by 1980s standards (it was can’t miss television when it hosted the 1987 Skins Game), it’s matured into a noble piece of architecture that represents the tail end of Dye’s extreme middle phase. In 2024, Tim Liddy, a protégé of Dye, returned to PGA West to perform a restoration to return putting surfaces and bunker complexes to their original dimensions. Explore our full review
Powers, Golf Digest: Kurt Kitayama (25-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — I understand this is a weak field, but this seems far too low a price on Kitayama, who is coming off a 37th at the Sony and missed the cut in his only previous AMEX appearance.
Lack: Kurt Kitayama (25-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — I like Kurt Kitayama plenty this week, but his odds have plummeted as a result of the Xander Schauffele withdrawal, and he is simply not at the level of the players that currently surround him on the odds board. Moreover, I far prefer Kitayama on longer and more challenging courses than what he will be faced with this week in Palm Springs.
Caddie: Patrick Fishburn (-125) over Nick Dunlap (DraftKings) — Everything’s been easy for Nick Dunlap, but now he shows up with expectations and commitments as the defending champ. That’s not simple for anyone, let alone this kid. I’ll side with Fishburn, who has the distance and can rack up birdies just like last year’s champ—without the pressure.
Mayo: Brian Harman (-110) over Will Zalatoris (Coolbet) — In a putting contest it’s always prudent to take the superior putter. That would be Harman in this case.
Gdula: JT Poston (-120) over Brian Harman (FanDuel) — Poston’s coming off a bad missed cut but should settle back in at an event where he has three straight top-25 finishes. Harman’s been okay in two Hawaii events but is in much worse recent form than Poston.
Stewart: Jason Day (-120) over Keith Mitchell (DraftKings) — Keith Mitchell is an incredible ball-striker who struggles mightily with the putter. Mitchell finished T-30 at the Sony Open and gained with the flatstick. Trouble is he lost strokes putting in 11 of his last 15 starts, and Poa is his worst career surface statistically. Jason Day is much more well-rounded. He might not be the ball-striker Mitchell is, but Day more than makes up for it with his scoring ability from close range. On courses that favor wedge play and putting, I’ll take Jason all day.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Cameron Davis (-115) over Nick Taylor (FanDuel) — I’ll side with the elite birdie-making ability of Cam Davis, who’s fourth in this field over the past 36 rounds in Birdie or Better, versus Taylor, whose long-term numbers aren’t great.
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Powers, Golf Digest: Nick Dunlap (+100) over Patrick Fishburn (DraftKings) — I’m 2-for-2 on even money matchups already this season so why not go for three in a row? Fishburn’s sixth-place finish last week at Sony was highlighted by an elite around-the-green and putting performance while he lost strokes both off-the-tee and on approach. Dunlap quietly finished 10th with some ugly driving numbers but solid approach and putting numbers. Let’s roll with the defending champ here and hope the good vibes and decent form are enough to take down Patty Fish.
Lack: Eric Cole (-105) over Will Zalatoris (DraftKings) — This is an easy one, as I am getting my favorite longshot of the week against Will Zalatoris, who I far prefer on harder golf courses. I’m expecting a big bounce-back year out of Zalatoris, but I expect that to come to fruition at majors and some of the more difficult setups on the PGA Tour. Cole is far more suited for a birdie-fest.
Matchup Results from the Sony Open: Powers: 1 for 1 (Henley +100) over T. Kim); Mayo: 1 for 1 (Henley +100) over T. Kim); Hennessey: 0 for 1; Caddie: 0 for 1; Gdula: 0 for 1; Stewart: 0 for 1; Lack: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Powers: 2-0-0 (up 2 units); Mayo: 1-1-0 (even units); Hennessey: 1-1-0 (down 0.26 units); Caddie: 0-2-0 (down 2 units); Gdula: 0-2-0 (down 2 units); Stewart: 0-2-0 (down 2 units); Lack: 0-2-0 (down 2 units)
The American Express picks 2025: Top 10s 
Caddie: Brian Harman (+550, DraftKings) — Harman’s contended here in the past and should have his confidence high after a nice week at Waialae.
Mayo: Charley Hoffman (+1100, FanDuel) — It’s been over 15 years since his win at PGA West, but there are a few signs in Chuck’s favor in 2025. While not an every-year occurrence, he tends to roll it on these greens more successfully than most other courses. The last time we saw him contend was a year ago on another desert course in Phoenix. He was second to only JJ Spaun at Sony in ball-striking. Yes, better than Nick Taylor. I’m searching for long shots, so a geezer who’s striking it well in this immediate moment with a ton of course success is a go.
Gdula: Wyndham Clark (+350, FanDuel) — Clark has distance and a good history with his putter on Poa greens. The irons aren’t quite where you want them, but this week’s birdie-friendly setup shouldn’t put too much pressure on him to go deep.
Stewart: Nick Dunlap (+500, FanDuel) — Our defending champion Nick Dunlap stunned the PGA Tour, becoming the first amateur to win a professional event in 30-plus years. Dunlap began his 2025 campaign with a three-over par round at Kapalua. Since then, Nick has played his last seven rounds 22-under par and finished all four rounds at Waialae in the 60s. That’s a tough task on a windy par-70 test. I love his momentum coming back to a place that obviously will only increase his current confidence.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Joe Highsmith (+1000, FanDuel) — Aside from last week, Highsmith’s been incredibly consistent—specifically with two top-10s in birdie-fests in the desert (Black Desert and Diamante). It’s a step up in field, but at these odds it’s worth the gamble.
Powers, Golf Digest: Adam Hadwin (+425, Bet365) — Not the most eye-popping result last week at Sony but he did make the cut and gained both on approach and around the green. I’d expect him to putt much better than he did at Sony, as he’s never lost strokes with the flat stick at the AMEX. Hence why he’s finished in the top 10 here in four of his last seven tries.
Lack: Ben Griffin (+450, DraftKings) — While I may not trust his ability to be the last man standing, Ben Griffin is one of the more consistent players in the field, and I love his odds to finish in the top 10 this week. Griffin finished ninth at this event in his last appearance, and he is coming off a performance at the Sony Open where he gained strokes in all three tee-to-green categories.
Top-10 results from The Sentry: Mayo: 1 for 1 (Keegan Bradley +333); Lack: 1 for 1 (Russell Henley +230); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Mayo: 1 for 2 (up 2.33 units); Gdula: 1 for 2 (up 1.4 units); Lack: 1 for 2 (up 1.3 units); Stewart: 1 for 2 (up 0.75 units); Caddie: 0 for 2 (down 2 units); Hennessey: 0 for 2 (down 2 units); Powers: 0 for 2 (down 2 units)
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About our experts 
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME. 
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13. 
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports  
This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
