The PGA Tour’s fall season rolls along this week with the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, which is played at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, Nevada. Wait, did somebody say … VEGAS?!
You bet we did. Sin City has hosted the tournament since its inception in 1983, way back when it was a 90-hole tournament and it was called the Panasonic Las Vegas Pro Celebrity Classic. Fittingly, the following year, it became the first PGA Tour event to offer a purse that exceeded $US1 million. You may not win a mil this week, but we hope our handicappers help you come out on the plus side come Sunday.
Our expert picks this week include a PGA Tour caddie offering insight from on the ground at TPC Summerlin thanks to our partnership with The Caddie Network; picks from Jason Sobel, a senior writer at The Action Network, which is becoming the leader in sports betting and handicapping analysis, and is growing its presence in golf; two of the most respected experts in the daily-fantasy community, Pat Mayo of DraftKings and Brandon Gdula of FanDuel; Lee Alldrick of FanShare Sports, which tracks DFS ownership and sentiment; and Columbia University senior lecturer and Ph.D. Lou Riccio, who uses predictive analysis and modeling to forecast winners in golf.
The field is stronger than usual at the Shriners, as a number of big-name players look to collect some early FedEx Cup points that can come in handy at the end of the season. Brooks Koepka and Tony Finau are among those making their 2019-’20 PGA Tour debuts. Read on to see who are experts like this week.
2019 Shriners Hospitals for Children Open Picks To Win (Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook)
PGA Tour Caddie Guest Picker of the Week: Bryson DeChambeau (17-1) — I know he faded last week, but he’s close to finding his form. This course suits his game. He’s long enough to take advantage of the par 5s. He’s already shown some really good form early in the new season. He’s already on the upcoming Presidents Cup team, but I feel like a lot of the guys on that team would love to win prior to heading to Australia in December.
Pat Mayo, DraftKings/Fantasy National analyst: Jason Kokrak (50-1) — Two swing-season events have given us two breakthrough winners, so why not back a guy who’s been due for his first win for … probably a half decade now. He’s not one of the elite in the field, but Kokrak strikes it like an elite player. Just don’t ask him to chip and putt. The chipping likely won’t just randomly get better; putting can, though. And if Kokrak is playing well enough tee-to-green to contend, I’m not too concerned about the short game. After four straight top-20s to finish the 2018-19 season, Kokrak flamed out at The Greenbrier, yet still gained more than four strokes on the field with his driver and irons in two rounds. And it’s not like he can’t putt; there were four separate times he gained more than five strokes on the greens last season. It’ just not that often.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire editor: Adam Scott (17-1) — I’m sticking with Scott as someone I’m backing until I see reason to divest. Scott ranks second in the field in adjusted strokes-gained average in 2019 based on my adjustments. According to FantasyNational, he leads the field in strokes gained/approach and is third in birdie-or-better rate. Winners will need to go low here.
Dr Lou Riccio, Columbia University: Matthew Wolff (60-1) — Let’s keep in mind Wolff won six times in the 2018-’19 season at Oklahoma State, including his NCAA individual title. Now, he has a PGA Tour victory to go with that. What’s stopping him now? He is a birdie machine, and the Shriners historically asks you to go low. Without the pressure of winning your first tour event, Wolff should have the green light to fire at pins and possibly lock up a second tour win before the end of the calendar year. The number is too big to ignore.
Jason Sobel, Action Network senior golf writer: Webb Simpson (20-1) — Reason No.1: He won this event in 2014, finished T-4 the next year and hasn’t missed the cut in the desert in a decade. Reason No.2: He just finished a season that included three second-place finishes in the last three months, so he’s due to win again. Reason No.3: If there’s one player who won’t go off the rails in Vegas this week, it’s Simpson. My guess is that he’ll be in bed by 9pm with a warm glass of milk each night. He won’t have the most fun in Sin City – until it’s time to kiss the trophy, that is.
Golf Digest editors: Tony Finau (20-1) — After a bit of a June swoon that included three straight MCs last season, Big Tone rebounded with three top-six finishes in his last six events and was no worse than T-30 during that stretch. This is his first event of the new PGA Tour season, and he tends to do very well right out of the gate, beginning each of the last two years with runner-ups in his first start. (He also played well the last two weeks while moonlighting on the European Tour, finishing T-10 at the Dunhill Links on Sunday.) We like that trend to continue at Shriners, where he’s made the cut in all five of his appearances in the event and finished T-16 or better three of those times.
Lee Aldrick, FanShare Sports golf expert: Adam Scott (17-1) — Scott has never played this event before but he does rank fourth in our course suitability metric. After a great first round last week, he faded away disappointingly, but he does rank eighth in the field this week for strokes gained/tee-to-green over the last two months and sixth for opportunities gained over that same period. If he makes a few putts, the Shriners is his for the taking.
Results from this season: We have predicted the season’s first two winners, but couldn’t make it three in a row at the Safeway Open. Brandon Gdula picked Sebastian Munoz (65-1) at the Sanderson Farms Championship, and four of our experts correctly predicted Joaquin Niemann in the season opener at The Greenbrier (Gdula, Pat Mayo, Dr. Lou Riccio and Lee Alldrick, hitting him at 22-1).
