Back like we never left. Well, actually, we did check in with you last week at the Presidents Cup, and we didn’t do half bad as a group.
We plan to keep it rolling this week with the Sanderson, the second full field event of the FedEx Cup Fall. The field might not be the most star-studded, but that’s not going to have us shy away from handicapping it.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds of Jackson CC, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of RunPureSports.com, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship.
Sanderson Farms Championship picks 2024: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Mac Meissner (50-1, FanDuel) — I’d be willing to bet on Mac winning an event this fall, and this is a great chance for him. He’s coming off a T-12 at a Bermuda course at Wyndham, and he contended with a chance to win at another birdie-fest in Tahoe. His elite approach play this summer should give him a great chance here in Mississippi.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Nick Dunlap (28-1, BetMGM) — Dunlap has been treated his first year on tour like Ricky Bobby: First or Last. So getting him in the second rung of favorites seems incredible for a guy with so much winning upside.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Patrick Fishburn (35-1, FanDuel) — Fishburn enters with great data and finishes, including four top 15s in his last five starts and three top-six finishes. The irons and putting can really spike for him, and he’s long off the tee, which should give him an advantage at the long par 72 this week.
Keith Stewart, Read The Line: JJ Spaun (33-1, FanDuel) — JJ Spaun has gained with his putter in seven straight events. That’s always been the problem with picking JJ, he couldn’t close with the flat stick. Gaining an average of seven strokes total over his last six starts, Spaun is one of the best ball-strikers in this field and has a hot putter. That combination of approach acumen and putting prowess is the perfect complement needed to contend and win in Mississippi.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Keith Mitchell (25-1, Bet365) — I’ve been selective with betting Keith Mitchell outright this year. This is another week I’m willing to back the Tennessee native—who has been one of the longest, straightest drivers of the ball and one of the best long-iron players. That elite combo may allow him to separate himself at Country Club of Jackson, and I’m willing to go back to the well at this good course fit.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Patton Kizzire (75-1, Bet365) — This is just a preposterous price for Kizzire, who is coming off a victory at the Procore Championship where he gained in every major area. And now he’s had a week off to digest it and get ready to roll again. Don’t forget, Kizzire’s first two victories on tour came within six weeks of each other, so he’s had some experience riding a hot hand.
Andy Lack, Run Pure Sports and Inside Golf podcast: JJ Spaun (33-1, FanDuel) — JJ Spaun has now gained over four strokes ball-striking in four straight starts, and he remains one of the best overall approach players in this field. He ended the 2024 season with back-to-back top-10 finishes at the Wyndham and 3M Open, and I expect him to continue his strong play this week in Jackson.
Past results: The panel is SCORCHING hot. Brandon Gdula picked up his first outright win of the year at the FedEx St. Jude, correctly predicting Hideki Matsuyama’s victory at 25-1. The week before that, Stephen Hennessey and Christopher Powers both nailed Aaron Rai’s win at the Wyndham at 35-1, giving them each three outright winners in 2024. Before that, it was Pat Mayo cashing in on Scottie Scheffler’s gold medal at the Olympics (+400) for his third outright this year.
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Sanderson Farms Championship picks 2024: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Caddie: Chris Gotterup (66-1, BetMGM) — Gotterup won just a few months ago in Myrtle Beach, distancing himself with elite off-the-tee and approach play. He’s proven he can get it done on a Bermuda course like Dunes Golf and Beach Club, and he can do so on a similar setup at Country Club of Jackson.
Mayo: Matt Kuchar (60-1, FanDuel) — After churning out a T-3 in the Twin Cities, Kuch has been flirting with the top 10 in each of his past two starts. Following his collapse in the final round Sunday at the Wyndham he lit it up on approach in Napa to open the swing season. Enough of his game has been hovering round elite over multiple weeks now that it shouldn’t be surprising if he can put it all together in Jackson.
Gdula: Matt McCarty (45-1, FanDuel) — McCarty ripped off three Korn Ferry Tour wins in six starts from July to August and, while his distance is just okay, he was 40th in GIR on the KFT last season and second in putting average.
Stewart: Charley Hoffman (55-1, FanDuel) — “Where is Charley Hoffman?!?!?” The famous phrase that rings out in crowds when Charley competes is easy to answer, in the fairway. Four-time winner Hoffman is usually right down the middle. One of the best drivers (and wedge players) on tour, two of Hoffman’s wins have come in the Fall months. A top-20 ranked putter and fifth in approach for the group in Jackson, I can see a clear path to victory. Charley’s best putting surface is Bermuda and this season he has really played well. The runner-up at WMPO in March, Hoffman has felt the heat recently down the stretch.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Trey Mullinax (175-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — This is admittedly a dart throw, but Mullinax has traditionally contended on Bermuda courses where his elite driving and ball-striking can give him an advantage. He has gained strokes on approach in his past five measured starts, and so I’m willing to take a shot that he’s healthy and his game could spike in a comfortable, southern setting.
Powers, Golf Digest: Matt Kuchar (60-1, FanDuel) — Accurate off the tee and lethal with the irons – that’s the recipe at CC of Jackson. Kuchar very much fits that bill, having gained strokes on approach in six of his last seven starts, resulting in four top-25 finishes. Sure, he’s getting older, but you better believe he’d love to pick up one more win, which would be the 10th of his career on the PGA Tour, before heading for the old-man tour.
Lack: Nick Hardy (80-1, FanDuel) — Nick Hardy has quietly been playing some solid golf of late, gaining over two strokes ball-striking in five straight starts. The 28-year-old also boasts some strong course history as well, with top-35 finishes in all three appearances, including a fifth in 2022.
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Sanderson Farms Championship picks 2024: Players We’re Fading
Caddie: Adam Svensson (35-1, BetMGM) — The Canadian’s approach play is strong, but I’d worry about his off-the-tee game if I were thinking about betting him here. There are many other stronger players off the tee I’d suggest betting in this betting range.
Mayo: Maverick McNealy (25-1, FanDuel) — Every time Mav sniffs a win he goes backwards. I hope it happens for him someday, but I won’t be there when he’s listed as one of the favorites.
Gdula: Nick Dunlap (22-1, FanDuel) — I love the hype and the ball-striking, but his short game is still problematic enough where I can’t get there as a co-favorite and would rather start the card elsewhere this week.
Stewart: Keith Mitchell (22-1, DraftKings) — The last time I bet Keith Mitchell was in Houston. Now 26 weeks later, my recovery is going very well. We all get locked into our favorite players on the betting board, but sometimes you must take a step back and measure their value. On Monday’s Odds Drop article, I wrote about this in depth. Mitchell will model perfectly for a venue like the Country Club of Jackson. He is the tournament favorite and can certainly ball strike his way to victory. The problem is this is a putter’s paradise and Mississippi is way too hot for any cashmere.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Mackenzie Hughes (22-1, BetRivers) — The Canadian’s rebounding from an emotional week at the Presidents Cup, and now he comes to a course where he needs to drive it long and straight, which isn’t exactly his strong suit.
Powers, Golf Digest: Mackenzie Hughes (22-1, BetRivers) — Like Mackenzie Hughes. Solid week at the Presidents Cup. Should not be favored to win a golf tournament in 2024.
Lack: Maverick McNealy (25-1, FanDuel) — He was my fade of the week at the same number at the Procore Championship, and I continue to be stupefied that Maverick McNealy is getting priced like the tournament favorite, even in such a weak field. This is an easy pass.
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Sanderson Farms Championship picks 2024: Matchups
Caddie: Stephan Jaeger (-120) over Adam Svensson (BetMGM) — Svensson is a fade for me, and though Jaeger has struggled this summer, he’s proven his off-the-tee game has made leaps in 2024, and that should give him an advantage over the Canadian here.
Mayo: JJ Spaun (-120) over Patrick Fishburn (Bet365) — Fishburn’s a nice story, but JJ’s a tour winner who’s been playing some of the best golf of the past three months.
Gdula: Taylor Moore (-125) over Cameron Champ (FanDuel) — Moore has an edge in both strokes gained/tee-to-green and putting over the last six months. Champ has played well here and has won, but everything points to Moore in this one.
Stewart: Patrick Fishburn (-130) over Eric Cole (DraftKings) — It has been well established that strokes-gained/off-the-tee is a separating skill at the Sanderson. Patrick Fishburn is ranked second in the field for his driving ability, and he is gaining an average of three strokes per start OTT over his last five events. Eric Cole loses two strokes to the field OTT per recent start and is ranked 105th in the field for driving skill. Over 72 holes, Patrick’s super power off the tee will win over Eric’s erratic drives. Not to mention, Fishburn is also a top-20 putter as well.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Chan Kim (-130) over Harris English (DraftKings) — Chan Kim has sneakily been one of the most consistent players in this field with five top-30 finishes in his past six events. That’s been powered by his ball-striking: Per Fantasy National, Kim is eighth in SG/approach and 15th in SG/off the tee over the past 24 rounds—whereas English is 104th in this field in SG/approach and 80th in SG/off the tee in that same period.
Powers, Golf Digest: JJ Spaun (-125) over Stephan Jaeger (DraftKings) — One player (Spaun) is trending in a very nice direction while the other (Jaeger) is trending in the wrong direction.
Lack: Chan Kim (-130) over Harris English (DraftKings) — Chan Kim has emerged as one of the better ball-strikers in this field over the last few months, and he enters this week ranking top five in recent approach play. Harris English, on the other hand, is coming off a bad missed cut at the Procore Championship where he lost strokes in both ball-striking categories.
Matchup Results from the Procore Championship: Caddie: 1 for 1 (Hoge (-139) over English); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Kuchar (-105) over Ghim); Hennessey: PUSH (McNealy (-150) over Homa); Powers: PUSH (Homa (+115) over McNealy); Lack: 0 for 1; Gdula: 0 for 1; Mayo: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Lack 22-12-2 (up 7.44 units); Caddie: 21-14-0 (up 5.01 units); Gdula: 20-13-3 (up 4.53 units); Hennessey: 18-13-5 (up 3.7 units); Powers: 16-16-3 (down 0.34 units); Mayo: 17-18-1 (down 1.39 units); Stewart: 14-20-2 (down 7.01 units)
Sanderson Farms Championship picks 2024: Top 10s
Caddie: Henrik Norlander (+600, FanDuel) — Norlander’s record here with three top-four finishes at Country Club of Jackson the past four years speaks for itself. Don’t overthink this one.
Mayo: Nick Hardy (+650, Bet365) — I feel pot committed to Hardy now. Despite zero top 20s, he’s gained ball-striking in each of his past 11 starts. He just can’t chip or putt. In fact, it’s very similar to the profile of last year’s champ Luke List. One of these weeks he’s going to run a hot putter, just need the consistent ball-striking to be there.
Gdula: Mac Meissner (+450, FanDuel) — Meissner has 10 top-26 finishes on tour already this season and four top 10s. He’s a top-six ball-striker in the field over the last 50 rounds – and the best putter out of the top six by a good margin.
Stewart: Ben Griffin (+400, BetRivers) — You will hear Ben Griffin’s name a bunch this week and for good measure. The young up-and-comer on the PGA Tour excels on Bermudagrass courses. Griffin lost here in a five-man playoff last year. Griffin gained 8.5 strokes on the greens and was the 54-hole leader. Fast forward a year and he continues to contend on tour. Getting across the finish line is tough, but it is obvious Ben believes in himself on this course so let’s take the 10 places and cash.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Sami Valimaki (+800, FanDuel) — The talented Finnish player is coming off a T-9 at the Irish Open at an incredibly tough test at Royal County Down. The Country Club of Jackson will seem like a breeze to him, and this should be a decent fit for him with his above average total driving and approach play. And with three top-10 finishes in his past eight starts, I think this is great value.
Powers, Golf Digest: Charley Hoffman (+450, DraftKings) — Despite some poor ball-striking numbers Charley Hoffman still managed a T-26 finish at the Procore. His long-term ball-striking numbers would indicate he’ll have no problem getting that corrected at the Sanderson, where he finished in the top 10 in 2020.
Lack: Jhonattan Vegas (+280, DraftKings) — Jhonattan Vegas fits a very similar profile to last year’s champion, Luke List. Vegas is one of the longest players in this field off the tee, a great long iron player, and he dominates on par fives and courses with a low missed fairway penalty. He proved his meddle with a recent win at the 3M Open, and I expect Vegas to be in the mix once again this week.
Top-10 results from the Procore Championship: Mayo: 1 for 1 (Tom Hoge +400); Gdula: 1 for 1 (Tom Hoge +400); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Hennessey: 12 for 36 (up 66.85 units); Powers: 7 for 36 (down 6.1 units); Caddie: 7 for 35 (down 7.93 units); Mayo: 7 for 36 (down 4.5 units); Gdula: 7 for 36 (down 4.1 units); Stewart: 6 for 36 (down 11.42 units); Lack: 7 for 36 (down 13.05 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. As well as contributing to Golf Digest, Andy is also the head of golf content for Run Pure Sports, where he covers PGA Tour betting and daily fantasy. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports
This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
