The last time I bet Keith Mitchell was 26 weeks ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. He lost two and half strokes with his short game/putter and missed the cut. I’m happy to say after six months, my recovery from burning money on Mitchell is going well and events like the Sanderson Farms Championship, where Mitchell is one of the betting favorites are more enjoyable now. I love Cashmere Keith, we share the same name! Mitchell is an unbelievable ball-striker and always wins when it comes to style score.
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The Monday Odds Drop article and video are all about value. In Mitchell’s last seven middle-tier starts; his average pre-tournament odds have been 34-1. I guarantee in the John Deere, 3M, Rocket, and Barracuda, Keith captured your model’s attention. He’s a statistical dream OTT and on approach. Unfortunately, his average finish in those seven starts is 20th in the five where he made the cut. He missed the weekend in two of them. We all have our guys we love to bet, but ask yourself every week if their “value” makes them worth it.
Mitchell is the betting favorite in Mississippi at +2200. The last week he was the betting favorite was the Barracuda in July, and he missed the cut. Keith has missed four straight cuts at the Country Club of Jackson and lost over nine strokes to the field last year. Based upon his average finish in these types of tournaments, play a placement bet. Find where his return on the leaderboard makes the most sense and bet that prop.
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Charley Hoffman can give you value in a weaker field event. A multiple PGA Tour winner, two of his four wins have come in autumn. Starting the week at +6600, Hoffman has more value on the board. Charley is top 20 in the field OTT and with his putter. He’s ranked fifth on approach and that complement of player characteristics are perfect for this course. With four par 5s, Hoffman will score as he is ranked sixth in par 5s scoring and fourth for Birdie or Better Percentage. With three times the return of Mitchell, why not run a chance on a guy who in his last seven regular tour starts has an average finish of 31 and just two missed cuts?
It’s Monday, and my play for the Odds Drop is to take Charley Hoffman (+6600) to win the Sanderson Farms. I bet Keith Mitchell so many times. My love of cashmere stems from his sartorial splendor. But these last 26 weeks have taught me a valuable lesson. Betting with my heart never rewards my wallet as much as wagering with my head.
Watch the below video for our favorite bets and players we’re fading for the 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship:
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA Tour. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on SportsGrid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline.
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This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
