Back in April, as Masters fever swept across the world, TikToker @skatecarter posed a fascinating question: could an average weekend hacker win the green jacket if they started all 18 holes at Augusta National on the green? The question drew more than 6,100 responses on TikTok, splitting golfers into two camps: those who believed they would walk away victorious and those too traumatised by their various three-putts over the years to believe than anything good could ever happen to them again.
Much like religion, the topic remained a matter of faith not proof… until this week. That’s when X’s self-professed “Golf Stat Pro” Lou Stagner decided to crunch the numbers to determine, once and for all, if a 12-handicapper could win the Masters if they began each hole with the longest possible putt on each green. This is what he found.
Can you win The Masters if you start on the green?
I ran the numbers.
Some of you are going to be surprised.
After you watch the video, read my comments below.
🧵👇 pic.twitter.com/NUrAVjrZYY— Lou Stagner (Golf Stat Pro) (@LouStagner) December 16, 2024
Based on Stagner’s calculations, if a 12-handicapper started each hole on the green, facing an average of 86 feet of putts per hole, they would finish the Masters 36-under-par. The next closest winning score in Masters history is Dustin Johnson’s 20-under finish in 2020. But that was in November conditions due to COVID. The lowest winning score in April Masters history belongs to Jordan Spieth and Tiger Woods, who posted 18-under totals in 2015 and 1997, respectively. In other words, it would be a runaway victory for us Average Joes.
There’s obviously a lot still unaccounted for. It’s nearly impossible to quantify how a mid-handicapper’s performance would be impacted by the pressure of the Masters, while weather and green speed would also play a huge role. One of Stagner’s key stat points – strokes gained putting by amateurs who have played Augusta National – was also largely inconclusive. About half putted better on Augusta’s famously undulating greens and half putted worse. The worst player in that analysis lost six additional strokes on the greens in comparison to their average round, so Stagner estimated that a weekend warrior would perform about 10 strokes worse. It’s an educated guess, but it’s still just a guess.
That said, even if a 12-handicapper putted twice as poorly as Stagner’s estimation, losing 20 strokes per round on the greens, they would still beat the next closest tour pro, Johnson, by a healthy six strokes. That’s pretty definitive, but we’ll never know for sure until someone actually tries it. What do you say Augusta? Are you game for a little science experiment?
