Just three weeks after the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines, the PGA Tour returns to Torrey for the Genesis Invtiational, which was moved to San Diego out of respect for the victims of the wildfires in Los Angeles. This time, all the stars will be out, save for tournament host Tiger Woods, who withdrew on Monday.
Xander Schuaffele, a San Diego native, will also be absent as he continues to reecover from injury, but Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth, who showed serious signs of life at the WM Phoenix Open, will all be in action. Hopefully, the strong crop of players gives our panel an even better chance of hitting an outright winner. Time for us to get one on the board in 2025.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a tour coach reporting anonymously from the grounds of Torrey Pines, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2025 Genesis Invitational:
Genesis Invitational picks 2025: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Swing Coach of the week: Collin Morikawa (16-1, DraftKings) — This is a major-like setup this week, and Morikawa has proven his all-around game fits Torrey Pines, placing third here in 2023. He’s comfortable on Poa annua greens, which is a huge thing, and I’d expect him to challenge Rory and Scheffler who have mixed histories here.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Will Zalatoris (50-1, FanDuel) — Willy Z has already flashed some peak rounds in the early part of the season, but it’s always tough for him to win a birdie fest when his putter just can’t sustain the required fire for four rounds. Now at a stiffer test, where his tee-to-green game can do the damage, he’s plenty live for his second career win. And since the field is stronger, we’re getting him at more than double the odds from a few weeks ago when he unexpectedly withdrew before the tournament.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Collin Morikawa (16-1, FanDuel) — I don’t like to chalk things up to being “due,” but Morikawa is getting really close to being due for a win. He’s got only one win since 2021 but 19 top-5 finishes in that span. His putting baseline has improved, his irons are as good as ever, and he’s starting to add distance.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Ludvig Aberg (25-1, FanDuel) — When I arrived on property, Ludvig Åberg was my first concern. I’m happy to report that the kid is healthy, and the game is still tailor made for this venue. Even in the harsh conditions of Round 2 at the Farmers last month, Ludvig gained almost three strokes on the field with his ball-striking. As we later found out, he didn’t even feel well during that round. Åberg is on a short list of the world’s best off the tee, and you will need to be an elite driver of the golf ball to contend at the Genesis. Ranked second in the field for par-4 scoring and third tee-to-green it is time for his first signature win.
Watch the below video as PGA professional Keith Stewart breaks down his thoughts on the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines. Watch his full video of betting analysis with Run Pure Sports’ Matthew Wiley here.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Ludvig Aberg (25-1, FanDuel) — I went into this week wanting to bet Aberg after backing him at the Farmers and feeling great entering the weekend. Turns out Aberg didn’t feel great. I love hearing the boots on the ground reporting from Keith Stewart (above), which is all I needed to hear to back him at this price.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Shane Lowry (45-1, FanDuel) — Lowry shot a back-nine 42 on Friday here a few weeks back to miss the cut by two. He then nearly won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am a week later. You know he’s itching to get back to avenge that ugly MC. With a little luck, we’ll get more weather on an already difficult setup and watch all the Euros rise to the top of the board again.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Tony Finau (40-1, DraftKings) — Tony Finau features an incredibly strong track record of success at Torrey Pines, with six top-10 finishes in 12 appearances. I trust his tee-to-green play on this golf course, and his power off the tee will be a tremendous asset. Even more encouraging is the fact that Finau finally got the putter going in his most recent start as well.
Past results: The panel had a total of 15 outright winners in 2024, besting our 2023 total of 13. We also had a strong season of matchups and our very own Stephen Hennessey absolutely cleaned up in the top-10 market. Let’s keep it rolling in ‘25.
Listen to Golf Digest’s weekly betting podcast, “The Loop,” (below) where we interview the industry’s leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to “The Loop” wherever you get your podcasts!
Genesis Invitational picks 2025: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Tour coach: Russell Henley (60-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Henley flies under the radar every week, and he has proven his game translates to major-like setups. He played great here at the 2021 U.S. Open, and his combination of accurate driving, great approaches and improved chipping will have him in the mix to return great value on your bet.
Mayo: Wyndham Clark (80-1, BetMGM) — I like the U.S. Open skill set for Torrey and I think Clark flashed enough to jump in now at nearly triple digits. He popped with his irons for the first time in ages and surprisingly was let down by his driver. Only the third time he’s lost strokes to the field off the tee in the past 12 months.
Gdula: Sam Burns (50-1, FanDuel) — I actually had Burns as a fade last week at odds half as good, and it simply had to do with the price. Now, the number is right at 50-1 for a guy who leads the field in strokes gained/short game over his last 50 rounds and has elevated distance versus this field.
Stewart: Shane Lowry (45-1, FanDuel) — I have two very important keys for predicting a winner of the Genesis Invitational. I want elite drivers of the golf ball and those who performed well in bad weather two weeks ago at Pebble Beach. Shane Lowry checks both of those boxes. Lowry is top 10 SG/off-the-tee on the PGA Tour and he finished runner-up at the AT&T. Accuracy really matters in these conditions and Shane is sixth in the field in SG/tee-to-green, seventh on approach, and first in par-5 scoring. A compelling complement of skills for a week where playing in Irish weather growing up might be the biggest advantage of all.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Justin Rose (150-1, FanDuel) — The 2019 Farmers champ should be feeling good entering this week after a T-3 at Pebble Beach. He proved he can still threaten the leader board on Sunday, and what better place for Rose to do it again than Torrey Pines?
Powers, Golf Digest: Wyndham Clark (80-1, BetMGM) — After back-to-back shocking weeks in California, Wyndham Clark may have found something in the Arizona desert. The former U.S. Open champion gained nearly five strokes tee-to-green and had his best off-the-tee performance in the final round, when he shot four under to post a T-16. Now he comes to Torrey Pines where he’ll need that driver to be working, though if he does get off line we know Clark can hack it out of the rough with the best of ‘em. Love Clark on tough setups, which is exactly what this week will be. That little glimmer of hope at TPC Scottsdale is all I needed to see to be in on Wyndy C at 80-1.
Lack: Wyndham Clark (80-1, BetMGM) — Wyndham Clark presents the ideal combination of power off the tee and putting upside that I am looking for this week. We’ve already seen him win a Signature Event at Quail Hollow on another driver heavy, long iron intensive golf course, and 80-1 feels a bit long for a player with such an ideal skill set for Torrey Pines.
RELATED: Genesis Invitational DFS picks 2025: Why I’m low on Jordan Spieth this week
Genesis Invitational picks 2025: Players We’re Fading
Swing coach: Jordan Spieth (30-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Everyone will jump aboard the Jordan Spieth bandwagon this week. It’s great to see him doing great things with Cameron McCormick once again and getting back to his DNA. But Torrey Pines is way too penal off the tee for Jordan. I would fade him in matchups this week.
Mayo: Tommy Fleetwood (35-1, DraftKings) — The odds aren’t necessarily wrong, but anything short of 50-1 and it’s tough to get down on Tommy to win a tournament in America.
Gdula: Ludvig Aberg (25-1, FanDuel) — It’s scary to fade anyone at 25-1 or shorter on FanDuel, but if I can nitpick one of the names, Ludvig is the easiest. While the potential is sky high, he has a really volatile short game and just struggled on and around the greens here three weeks ago.
Stewart: Collin Morikawa (14-1, FanDuel) — Sometimes life just isn’t fair. Collin Morikawa is a two-time major champion and the fourth-ranked golfer in the world. I just wonder how he can keep up with the others at the top of the betting board with his ball speed. In his press conference, he spoke about Saturday at Pebble Beach and playing alongside Rory. Those comments give me pause as we prepare for a similar scenario. Morikawa is world class, but when the wind blows and the course plays soft and longer, I think he loses an edge against the more powerful signature players.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Jordan Spieth (30-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — If there’s any reluctance with his wrist still, the ultra-heavy thick rough at Torrey Pines will expose it. I’m optimistic about his game in 2025 but not at Torrey Pines.
Powers, Golf Digest: Hideki Matsuyama (20-1, DraftKings) — Matsuyama has now lost strokes off the tee in three straight starts, an alarming trend as he heads to a venue where solid driving is a key indicator for success. Even a +6.4 SG/approach performance here at Torrey Pines a few weeks ago wasn’t enough to overcome some driving woes, leading to a 32nd-place finish.
Lack: Hideki Matsuyama (20-1, DraftKings) — After a strong start to the season, Hideki Matsuyama has been trending in the wrong direction. The former Masters champion has now lost strokes off the tee in three consecutive starts. Torrey Pines has not been historically kind to weak drivers, and even if Hideki is only a few minor details off, this is the course that will expose it.
RELATED: Michael Kim confirmed what we all knew about Jordan Spieth’s golf ball
Genesis Invitational picks 2025: Matchups
Swing coach: Tommy Fleetwood (-120) over Jason Day (Bet365) — I’m aware of Day’s history at Torrey Pines, but at this point in their careers, Fleetwood is a much better ball-striker and someone you can trust on a tough golf course. He just spent time with Butch Harmon in Florida, and you always see players start to play well after a confidence-boosting session with the legend.
Mayo: Taylor Pendrith (-120) over Tom Kim (Coolbet) — A bomber who possesses solid course form over a short smacker who tends to do his best work on short Bermuda tracks. I’ll take the former.
Gdula: Maverick McNealy (-115) over Thomas Detry (FanDuel) — Detry looked (and was) untouchable last week, but the long-term data pretty heavily favors McNealy in this matchup.
Stewart: Rory McIlroy (+120) over Scottie Scheffler (Bet365) — In two 2025 starts, Scottie Scheffler has been average off the tee and around the green; two of his many superpowers. I know Scottie’s “average” is well above the tour standard, but Rory McIlroy is an equally talented player. With Rory’s recent form, and considering the climate this week, I’m going to take McIlroy over Scheffler. It’s a risk, but from what I’ve seen of Scheffler the last two weeks on site, the recovery is just not there, and McIlroy looks midseason. When we get to Bay Hill it will be Scottie by a million, but for now let’s take advantage of the odds in this matchup.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Tommy Fleetwood (-120) over Jason Day (Bet365) — I like our anonymous swing coach’s insights about Fleetwood tying in a visit to Butch Harmon with his TGL appearance. This is the type of venue where Fleetwood should excel, and J-Day is getting a bump for his Torrey history—but this field is a different animal.
Powers, Golf Digest: Wyndham Clark (-120) over Corey Conners (Bet365) — Given how solid he is tee-to-green, Conners seems like the safer play here at Torrey. But he’s been brutal T2G these last two weeks, resulting in a pair of finishes outside of the top 60. On top of that, he lost over four strokes around the green at WMPO and the putter is as cold as ever. I don’t expect it to heat up on Poa, his worst surface. Obviously, I like Wyndy C to win the tournament. I like him even more to just beat the ice-cold Canadian.
Lack: Viktor Hovland (-125) over Jordan Spieth (BetOnline) — While Jordan Spieth’s performance in Phoenix last week was certainly encouraging, I fear that the narrow fairways and thick rough of Torrey Pines may be a rude awakening. Hovland, on the other hand, showed encouraging signs in his own right at Pebble Beach, and possesses far superior driving and long iron play, making his path to success at this specific golf course a little wider than Spieth’s.
Matchup Results from the WM Phoenix Open: Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Bhatia (-114) over D. Thompson); Swing coach: 1 for 1 (Bhatia (-125) over D. Thompson); Mayo: 1 for 1 (M.W. Lee (+105) over Greyserman); Lack: 1 for 1 (Thomas (-115) over Matsuyama); Powers: 0 for 1; Stewart: 0 for 1; Gdula: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Powers: 4-2-0 (up 2.15 units); Hennessey: 4-2-0 (up 2.04 units); Swing coach: 2-0-1 (up 1.71 units); Mayo: 2-4-0 (down 1.95 units); Stewart: 2-4-0 (down 2.02 units); Lack: 2-4-0 (down 2.13 units); Gdula: 2-4-0 (down 2.22 units)
Genesis Invitational picks 2025: Top 10s
Swing coach: Tommy Fleetwood (+300, DraftKings) — I talked about Fleetwood’s work with Butch Harmon recently in Florida in my matchup, and I think Tommy will end up near the top of the leader board as well.
Mayo: Adam Scott (+410, FanDuel) — Scott’s been middling to kick off 2025, but the irons and short game have been excellent, and he remains longer than most of the field off the tee. We just haven’t seen him roll it successfully at all on the greens. He’s top-10’d in both his Farmers appearances the past decade, gaining strokes putting in each, and even gained 3.9 putting in the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. If Scott can start making those putts again to match his ball-striking he’ll be a live long shot.
Gdula: Taylor Pendrith (+330, FanDuel) — Pendrith finished T-7 at Torrey Pines three weeks ago and was T-9 last year. He’s a top-10 ball-striker in the field over the past 50 rounds, per datagolf, and he’s an 84th-percentile putter from within 15 feet on tour since the start of last season.
Stewart: Justin Rose (+800, DraftKings) — The last two times we saw terrible weather plague a signature/major event, Justin Rose finished in the top three. When the game gets very demanding due to the conditions, Rose trends to the top of the leaderboards. The 2019 Farmers winner has the driver and long iron game to score at Torrey Pines. Toss in a proven demeanor for difficult challenges, and I love this long play with 10 places.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Justin Rose (+800, DraftKings) — Backing up my longshot with the top-10 bet here.
Powers, Golf Digest: Russell Henley (+400, FanDuel) — Can he go for a third straight top 10? It’s a tall ask, but he’s certainly striking it well enough to do it. Believe it or not, Henley has only played Torrey twice in the last decade. Once in the 2014 Farmers (MC) and once in the 2021 U.S. Open, where he held a share of the 54-hole lead before fading on Sunday.
Lack: Rasmus Hojgaard (+320, FanDuel) — Rasmus Højgaard is a star in the making, and we still have an opportunity to be early on him as American golf fans realize the level of his talent. Hojgaard gained over five strokes off the tee and two strokes on approach last week in Phoenix en route to a 12th-place finish. Now Hojgaard travels to a course that may even be a better fit for his skill set in Torrey Pines.
Top-10 results from the WM Phoenix Open: Stewart: 1 for 1 (Justin Thomas +150); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Mayo: 2 for 6 (up 10.33 units); Lack: 3 for 6 (up 7.4 units); Gdula: 2 for 6 (up 2 units); Stewart: 2 for 6 (down 0.75 units); Tour coach: 0 for 3 (down 3 units); Hennessey: 0 for 6 (down 6 units); Powers: 0 for 6 (down 6 units)
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false Public Torrey Pines Golf Course: South La Jolla, CA 3.9 23 Panelists
- 100 Greatest Public
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Torrey Pines sits on one of the prettiest golf course sites in America, atop coastal bluffs north of San Diego with eye-dazzling views of the Pacific. Rees Jones’ remodeling of the South Course in the early 2000s not only made the course competitive for the 2008 U.S. Open (won by Tiger Woods in a playoff over Rocco Mediate), it also brought several coastal canyons into play for everyday play, especially on the par-3 third and par-4 14th. An annual PGA Tour stop, Torrey Pines received another boost by Jones prior to hosting its second U.S. Open in 2021, this one won by Jon Rahm. Explore our full review
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports
This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
