Torrey Pines used to mark the start of the season for many golf fans when Tiger Woods and the rest of the best players on tour would make their stateside debut each year. For many of us, Torrey is one of the best watches of the year sitting on the cliffs of La Jolla, Calif., so we can’t wait to bet on the action—which starts Wednesday by the way (don’t forget to get your bets in before the early start!).
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Our experts are circling for another victory for this column, as Brandon Gdula had both Patrick Cantlay and Jason Day in the mix last week, and Christopher Powers had Max Greyserman. Unless you backed those outights bets with top-10 wagers, that does you no good, so we’re here to deliver a big win as the California Swing keeps going. (By the way, hopefully you followed Pat Mayo’s actual top-10 bet, Charley Hoffman, which netted you 11 units!). Our Golf Digest betting panel looks a little different this week, as we’ve enlisted the help of one of the top swing coaches on tour to send his betting analysis based on what he’s seeing out at Torrey Pines, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
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Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open:
Farmers Insurance Open picks 2025: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Swing Coach of the week: Jason Day (25-1, FanDuel) — The work that Jason Day and Chris Como have been doing over the past few months is already paying dividends. We saw it all coming together at PGA West, and now he returns to a venue in Torrey Pines where he’s always succeeded. It’s a major championship venue, and Day is a major champ. He’s playing like his old self again, so ride the hot player and with the hot teacher.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Will Zalatoris (25-1, FanDuel) — Willy Z has already flashed some peak rounds in the early part of the season, but it’s always tough for him to win a birdie-fest when his putter just can’t sustain the required fire for four rounds. Now at a golf course representing a stiffer test where his tee-to-green prowess can do the damage, he’s plenty live for his second career win. Just don’t miss too many five-footers, and he should be fine.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Shane Lowry (35-1, FanDuel) — Lowry is a top-five tee-to-green player in this field over his past 50 rounds, via datagolf, and he finished 2024 with a string of consistently good finishes. He has a bit of a layoff concern, sure, but the game is there, so long as the putter regresses back to where it should be long-term.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Ludvig Aberg (10-1, Bet365) — In his first start at Torrey Pines, Ludvig Aberg finished ninth. Aberg’s long game is by far the best in the field. Ludvig’s ball-striking gained almost seven strokes (+6.7) last year at Farmers. In his past 20 starts, Åberg is gaining four strokes T2G! A fifth place at The Sentry was just a warmup for this week.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Ludvig Aberg (10-1, Bet365) — I don’t normally fall for the lowest-odds player, but Torrey Pines is a course that can really identify the best player of the week—and Aberg’s best attributes fit this course. He’s extremely long and straight off the tee and he can hit his long to middle irons high. It would be a surprise if he’s not contending on Sunday.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Max Greyserman (30-1, Bet365) — Was on him last week and he gave it a good run. Can’t quit now. Let’s just hope he’s not our next Cameron Young and the breakthrough comes sooner rather than … never. He missed the cut in his only appearance here last year but he was just getting his PGA Tour career going then. A year later, he collected five top 10s, including one last week, and had legitimate chances to win twice. His long irons are the strength of his game, which should bode well at Torrey.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Ludvig Aberg (10-1, Bet365) — I have penciled in Ludvig Aberg for Torrey Pines ever since he first broke onto the scene with his elite driving ability, and it was encouraging to see him finish top-10 last year in his debut performance. Now with some Poa experience under his belt, I expect Aberg to pick up his second PGA Tour victory this week in San Diego.
Past results: The panel had a total of 15 outright winners in 2024, besting our 2023 total of 13. We also had a strong season of matchups and our very own Stephen Hennessey absolutely cleaned up in the top-10 market. Let’s keep it rolling in ‘25.
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false Public Torrey Pines Golf Course: South La Jolla, CA 3.9 23 Panelists
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Torrey Pines sits on one of the prettiest golf course sites in America, atop coastal bluffs north of San Diego with eye-dazzling views of the Pacific. Rees Jones’ remodeling of the South Course in the early 2000s not only made the course competitive for the 2008 U.S. Open (won by Tiger Woods in a playoff over Rocco Mediate), it also brought several coastal canyons into play for everyday play, especially on the par-3 third and par-4 14th. An annual PGA Tour stop, Torrey Pines received another boost by Jones prior to hosting its second U.S. Open in 2021, this one won by Jon Rahm. Explore our full review
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Farmers Insurance Open picks 2025: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Swing coach: Luke Clanton (50-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Every time Luke Clanton tees it up with the pros, he proves he not only belongs out there, but he’s already one of the best. It’s a matter of time before his major type of game leads to a win, and this should be a nice opportunity to do it.
Mayo: Stephan Jaeger (65-1, FanDuel) — Beyond his T-3 here last year, he also posted a T-3 at the Mexico Open, an event with a shocking amount of crossover. Then Jaeger won in Houston, another driver-heavy, difficult course where you must be able to scramble to stay in contention. Hopefully he’s worked his case of the LEFTS out since Hawaii, where he was contending again.
Gdula: Jhonattan Vegas (75-1, FanDuel) — We’ve seen Vegas’ upside this year already with a solo fourth at The Sentry, and while he missed the cut at The American Express, he returns to a setup he has played plenty (14 straight times since 2011). He’s a top-five ball-striker and distance-gainer in this field over the past 50 rounds.
Stewart: J.J. Spaun (60-1, FanDuel) — JJ Spaun has been really solid, gaining over five strokes total against the field in his past 10 starts. Ball-striking has always been Spaun’s strong suit, but lately, JJ has been exceling in the scoring category as well. JJ is ranked first in the field for approach and sixth T2G. The best news for Spaun supporters, that scoring comes from a positive putter over his past 10 starts. Watch out for the LA native on the West Coast Poa as a longshot pick!
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Aaron Rai (60-1, FanDuel) — Aaron Rai might be a pretty boring player—hitting it straight but not eye-popping speed—but boring is what you want at a difficult golf course like this one. He was in the mix here in 2022, but now he’s playing the best golf of his career, so I think a trophy is in the conversation.
Powers, Golf Digest: J.J. Spaun (60-1, Bet365) — Spaun has missed three of his last four Farmers cuts but this year he’s coming in with much better form. The last time he did not gain strokes with his irons was last March, and he’s made the weekend in 12 of his last 13 starts with five top 10s along the way, including a third at the Sony Open, where a 17th hole bogey cost him a spot in a playoff. Ideally, he continues his scorching hot run with his irons and makes enough putts to contend late on Sunday.
Lack: Aaron Rai (60-1, FanDuel) — I always have interest in Aaron Rai on golf courses that emphasize middle- to long-iron play, and with over 70 percent of approach shots coming from over 150 yards at Torrey Pines, Rai should be fully comfortable on the William Bell design. Rai has a prior sixth-place finish at Torrey Pines, and I’m expecting a strong week out of the Ryder Cup hopeful.
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Farmers Insurance Open picks 2025: Players We’re Fading
Swing coach: Max Homa (28-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — We know Homa just changed swing coaches, and I think a really hard driving golf course will be a tough test for him. The firm, narrow fairways and thick rough will put those swing changes on full examination, and I’d wait to see how that works out for him.
Mayo: Shane Lowry (40-1, Bet365) — Lowry hasn’t played a connotative tournament since mid-November … unless you include TGL, which I do not. It may take him a few rounds to warm up.
Gdula: Keegan Bradley (22-1, FanDuel) — Bradley’s game is pretty strong right now, but it’s a crowded field at the top of the board this week, and Bradley’s long-term game is lagging behind the other studs, and he’s doing a lot of damage with his wedges, which isn’t bankable forever.
Stewart: Sahith Theegala (28-1, DraftKings) — After a very strong 2024, Sahith Theegala finds himself slipping to start 2025. Two starts and two results in the mid-30s, and the putter seems like the biggest problem. About a year ago, the flatstick became very inconsistent for Theegala. That roller coaster has affected his ball-striking, creating a similar struggle from time to time off the tee and on approach. In a field filled with better ball-strikers in form, I’m going to skip the Pepperdine grad even on the West Coast.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Max Homa (28-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — I’ll agree with our coach here—this is a great test for Homa’s swing changes and new equipment. I’d rather not bank on that at this price with some unknowns.
Powers, Golf Digest: Max Homa (28-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — I was on Homa at Sentry because of the price, and he had a decent week. Decent enough to be back on him at half the price? No thanks. I like a different Max in this range.
Lack: Max Greyserman (25-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — I think it’s time to sell on Max Greyserman, who has been accumulating a lot of his results by beating up on bad golf courses. Greyserman has little experience on some of the longer and more difficult tests that the PGA Tour has to offer, and I’m going to need to see it before I back him at such a low number.
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Farmers Insurance Open picks 2025: Matchups
Swing coach: Thomas Detry (-115) over Daniel Berger (DraftKings, R1) — Berger is playing nicely after his return to the PGA Tour, but this is a major championship type of test, and Detry has already proven his game translates to that type of difficult golf. I’d rather side with the golfer I’m confident is firing on all cylinders here.
Mayo: Ludvig Aberg (+100) over Hideki Matsuyama (CoolBet) — Hideki has solid course history at Torrey, but Aberg was programmed in a lab to dominate these grounds. And he’s even money in this matchup despite overtaking Deki on the outright betting board.
Gdula: Ben Griffin (-115) over Beau Hossler (FanDuel) — Griffin’s irons (18th over the past 50 rounds among the field) are substantially better than Hossler’s (116th), and while the short-game advantage goes to Hossler, it’s not nearly as big of a gap as the iron play.
Stewart: J.J. Spaun (+115) over Kurt Kitayama (DraftKings) — As I wrote above, Spaun’s game has proven it can be consistent and very sustainable, while we haven’t seen that in a while from Kitayama.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Jason Day (-125) over Kurt Kitayama (BetMGM) — Kitayama has always been one of the wildest drivers off the tee, and though everyone will be missing fairways at Torrey, he can really put himself in some tough spots here. J-Day’s got the major course history bump plus recent form, so this one is a layup for me.
Powers, Golf Digest: Sungjae Im (+115) over Hideki Matsuyama (DraftKings) — A heavyweight bout right here. Both guys have excellent history at Torrey Pines and they’re both off to very strong starts in 2025. I’ll stick with my theme of plus-money matchups and roll with Im, who I expect to bounce back in a big way after missing the cut at AMEX.
Lack: Tony Finau (-105) over Max Greyserman (BetOnline) — This is an easy one, as I’m getting a player with some of the best course history in this field as a slight under-dog to one of my fades of the week. While Tony Finau disappointed last week, Torrey Pines is a far better fit for his skill-set, and I expect his run of strong play in San Diego to continue.
Matchup Results from the AMEX: Powers: 1 for 1 (Dunlap (+100) over Fishburn); Gdula: 1 for 1 (Poston (-120) over Harman); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Day (-120) over Mitchell); Mayo: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1; Caddie: 0 for 1; Lack: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Powers: 3-0-0 (up 3 units); Mayo: 1-2-0 (down 1 units); Gdula: 1-2-0 (down 1.17 units); Stewart: 1-2-0 (down 1.17 units); Hennessey: 1-2-0 (down 1.26 units); Caddie: 0-3-0 (down 3 units); Lack: 0-3-0 (down 3 units)
Swing coach: Charley Hoffman (+900, Bet365) — I think this is a huge value for a West Coast guy who cashed a top-10 last week. We know he’s feeling good physically, and he has the game for another strong finish under the radar of the oddsmakers.
Mayo: Taylor Moore (+900, Bet365) — On paper, Moore has the required skill-set for Torrey. He bombs it, is masterful around the greens and putts well most of the time. He rebounded nicely with a top 10 at PGA West after missing the cut at Sony, and back at a driver-heavy tournament, he should contend for another top 10.
Gdula: Taylor Pendrith (+360, Caesars Sportsbook) — Pendrith is a good ball-striker among this field (top 10 over the last 50 rounds) and has played twice in 2025—so shouldn’t have any layoff disadvantages. Pendrith has made all three cuts at this event in his career with two top-16 finishes (one being a top 10).
Stewart: Will Zalatoris (+275, FanDuel) — In his past six starts, Will Zalatoris has four top 18 finishes. He has also added some weight/strength and looks comfortable with his post-back surgery swing. The true test comes this week when he heads to a very comfortable venue. In five starts at Torrey, Willy Z has a seventh, playoff loss, and 13th last year. When it comes to courses where you need long and straight, Zalatoris is the man. It also doesn’t help that Poa is his best putting surface by a mile. Take the 10 places and another really big step forward for Willy Z prior to major season.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Stephan Jaeger (+500, DraftKings) — We already saw signs of life from Jaeger, who nearly won at Waialae, which showed off his stellar tee-to-green game, which was crucial to his victory in Houston last year.
Powers, Golf Digest: Niklas Norgaard Moller (+600, BetMGM) — Since missing the cut at the BMW International in early July, Norgaard Moller has made 13 consecutive cuts with a win at the British Masters, a T-7 at the BMW PGA and a T-4 at last week’s Hero Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour. The casual fan may not be aware of the 32-year-old Dane just yet, but that could change soon.
Lack: Taylor Pendrith (+360, Caesars Sportsbook) — Taylor Pendrith has the exact skill-set I am looking for this week, and his power off the tee and putting upside should pay dividends at Torrey Pines. Pendrith finished ninth at this event last year, and he has greatly approved as an approach player since then.
Top-10 results from the AMEX: Mayo: 1 for 1 (Charley Hoffman +1100); Lack: 1 for 1 (Ben Griffin +450); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Mayo: 2 for 3 (up 13.33 units); Lack: 2 for 3 (up 5.8 units); Gdula: 1 for 3 (up 0.4 units); Stewart: 1 for 3 (down 0.25 units); Caddie: 0 for 3 (down 3 units); Hennessey: 0 for 3 (down 3 units); Powers: 0 for 3 (down 3 units)
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About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports .
This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
