This week, it appears our expert panel is in search of one of the rarer occurences in golf betting – a community win.
For those unaware, a community win occurs when seemingly everyone—gambling twitter, assorted talking heads, your Aunt Judy, etc.—is betting on the same player. That player this week appears to be Ben Griffin, one of the tournament favorites who comes into the Butterfield Bermuda Championship having finished inside the top 25 in three of his last four starts. Is a breakthrough imminent? A number of our experts, and the rest of the golf gambling community, sure hopes so.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds of Port Royal, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Golf Podcast, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2024 Butterfield Bermuda Championship.
Butterfield Bermuda Championship picks 2024: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Ben Griffin (20-1, FanDuel) — Griffin is in great form, contended to win at this golf course and is fighting to get in the signature events for 2025. He loves playing on Bermudagrass, so it’s a good bet for him to get his first win this week.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Daniel Berger (33-1, BetMGM) — Average rounds bookended a 66-64 in Mexico a week ago showcasing Berger’s weekly flash of upside to convince me to lose money on him again. Berger’s best play has always come at this style of course in his career with sustained success at Sony, Heritage, PGA National and a win at Colonial. Accuracy, wedge, and putting contests that all have wind influence from time to time. Worth noting, Berger is second in scoring in winds over 17 mph over his past 24 rounds.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Andrew Putnam (33-1, FanDuel) — Putnam is one of the best iron players in this field, and that should give him a big leg up. He’s also top 20 in both around-the-green and putting strokes-gained over the last 50 rounds, via datagolf. He also finished T-21 here back in 2021, his last start at Port Royal.
Keith Stewart, Read The Line: Ben Griffin (20-1, FanDuel) — There’s no doubt Ben Griffin will be a popular pick in Bermuda. Griffin could have won the Butterfield in 2022 eventually finishing third. Griffin is ranked second in putting (Bermudagrass) and 15th on approach in this field. Port Royal Golf Course reminds me of Hamilton Golf and Country Club where they played the RBC Canadian Open in June. Ben finished runner-up gaining over five strokes with his putter and another 10 tee-to-green. Follow that formula this week and we will be cashing a nice ticket on Sunday night.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Ben Griffin (20-1, FanDuel) — I’m among the many backing Griffin here. I bet him last week and he was just a few back heading into Sunday. You ride your guys in the fall, which I’ve been saying for the past few weeks, and B-Griff is firmly one of my guys.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Daniel Berger (33-1, BetMGM) — Berger is getting close to being all the way back, having made four straight cuts with a top 10 and last week’s 20th-place finish along the way. At his best he is by far the best player in this field and we’re getting him at 33-1. Have to try to strike on him before he returns to his rightful 20-1 territory come Florida Swing time.
Andy Lack, Inside Golf podcast: Ben Griffin (20-1, FanDuel) — I have been riding Ben Griffin all Fall swing, and I have zero intention of hopping off at a course that he almost won at in 2022. Griffin ranks top 10 in this field in Bermuda around-the-green play, Bermuda putting, strokes-gained/total on coastal courses, SG/total on shorter courses, SG/total in the Fall swing, and SG/total in windy conditions, which explains why Port Royal is such an ideal fit for his skill set.
Past results: The panel finished the summer hot. Brandon Gdula picked up his first outright win of the year at the FedEx St. Jude, correctly predicting Hideki Matsuyama’s victory at 25-1. The week before that, Stephen Hennessey and Christopher Powers both nailed Aaron Rai’s win at the Wyndham at 35-1, giving them each three outright winners in 2024. Before that, it was Pat Mayo cashing in on Scottie Scheffler’s gold medal at the Olympics (+400) for his third outright this year.
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Butterfield Bermuda Championship picks 2024: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Caddie: Joel Dahmen (70-1, FanDuel) — After a top-20 finish last week, Dahmen comes to Bermuda feeling more confident. He’s got a win at an island event (Puerto Rico), so the high winds shouldn’t scare him. He has his back against the wall with keeping his card, and he’s got the clutch gene to thrive.
Mayo: Aaron Baddeley (250-1, BetMGM) — After watching Brian Gay win here in 2020 why not go to the bottom with a geezer who can still chip and putt in gale force winds. I see many are choosing Snedeker for the same reason, I suggest Aaron before you get a case of a Badds Sads when he wins from the clouds. He does have a T-6 in last appearance here.
Gdula: Henrik Norlander (55-1, FanDuel — Norlander hasn’t played this course well and has missed three straight cuts, but he’s trending up well, and a lot of that has to do with his irons. I think the course form is making the number a bit too big.
Stewart: Wes Bryan (60-1, BetRivers) — Since Wes Bryan lost the Creator Classic at the Tour Championship in August, he has finished T-13, T-37, T-21, and T-6. That top 10 last week in Mexico was highlighted by 22 birdies. Bryan’s one tour win came at Hilton Head so we know he can handle the wind. The main reason for his great Fall has been improved iron play to match his incredible acumen around the green. I love that combination this week in a comfortable environment playing alongside his brother George. Ranked 128th on the FEC list, a win would remove any doubt what channel we will watch Wes on for the next two years.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Ben Kohles (70-1, FanDuel) — The 2023 Korn Ferry Tour Player of the Year won twice last year and knows how to win. He was really close in May, finishing second at TPC Craig Ranch. He’s sneakily gaining a ton of strokes on approach this fall, nearly 15 strokes on approach in five starts, which will serve him very well in the strong wind in Bermuda.
Powers, Golf Digest: Wes Bryan (60-1, BetRivers) — I liked this bet before seeing he’d be paired with his brother in the opening two rounds. Now I love. Vibes will be at an all-time high for the Bryan Bros and, knowing them, there will be a little something extra on the line over those first two days, even if it’s just bragging rights. Add in the fact Wes is coming off a top 10 finish in Mexico and the fact he’s had great success on Bermudagrass courses where the wind also plays a factor and this is an auto-bet.
Lack: Greyson Sigg (45-1, FanDuel) — In two appearances at Port Royal, Greyson Sigg has finished 11th and 22nd, and he enters this week in some quietly great form. The South Carolina native is coming off a 23rd at the Shriners where he gained over a stroke in both ball-striking categories, and he recently finished fourth at the Procore Championship, another golf course that de-values off-the-tee play in exchange for wedge play.
RELATED: Butterfield Bermuda Championship DFS picks: I’m trusting this favorite to get his first win
Butterfield Bermuda Championship picks 2024: Players We’re Fading
Caddie: Doug Ghim (20-1, FanDuel) — Ghim’s played great golf in 2024, but his finish in Vegas needs an asterisk, as he plays out of TPC Summerlin. I think he struggles in the wind this week.
Mayo: Matti Schmid (28-1, BetMGM) — Fresh off a disappointing MC following consecutive top-five finishes, Schmid seems primed to rebound with a T-3 to his name at this venue a year ago. His short game in this wind is rather worrisome, however. When he beats the field around the greens it’s generally marginal and when he loses strokes, he’s usually in the bottom 20 percent of players. Maybe he can navigate the gusts and pick off a lot of GIRs vs. the field or run a scorching putter, but it seems like a poor set up for his skill set.
Gdula: Justin Lower (25-1, FanDuel) — There are a good number of names 30-1 or shorter without any dominating favorites. Of them, Lower stands out as one of the weakest ball-strikers. He’s played well here in the past, and that’s likely impacting his number.
Stewart: Mackenzie Hughes (18-1, FanDuel) — Mackenzie Hughes is playing in the Butterfield Bermuda Championship for the first time. A skilled scorer, Hughes will have to rely heavily on his scrambling skills to keep pace this week. Learning a brand-new venue in challenging conditions is a big ask. Mac hasn’t competed since the Sanderson, is ranked 81st in total driving and 50th on approach. When that wind blows, so will Hughes chances of winning in these conditions.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Justin Lower (25-1, FanDuel) — Great showing from Lower last week, but you can’t justify these insanely low odds on someone who hasn’t been in contention enough to prove he can get over the line for a tour victory.
Powers, Golf Digest: Maverick McNealy (14-1, BetRivers) — I like McNealy’s game and he’s certainly had some nice finishes of late, but what exactly has he done in his career to continually be priced like this in these events? Has he ever even seriously contended? That one time at Pebble? I’m sure he’s a DFS darling and there is certainly money to be made on him in placement markets, but you’ll never catch me betting on him to win at anything lower than 50-1.
Lack: Sam Stevens (25-1, BetMGM) — I certainly understand that Sam Stevens is playing some solid golf right now, but this is too short of a price for me to take on. Stevens has a missed cut in his only appearance at Port Royal, and the Robert Trent Jones design de-values Stevens’ elite off-the-tee skill and will place an outsized amount of pressure on his shaky wedge play.
RELATED: Does playing on Bermudagrass actually suck?
Butterfield Bermuda Championship picks 2024: Matchups
Caddie: Lucas Glover (-115) over Andrew Novak — I think this is great value for Glover, a fantastic ball-striker. The wind will be whipping, and it will expose anyone who is a touch off. Also, Glover always plays well late in the year. So I think this is an easy pick.
Mayo: Andrew Putnam (+110) over Lucas Glover (Coolbet) — Putnam’s gained across irons, chipping and putting in four of his past six starts while now heading to a course where his lack of distance is less likely to hurt him. There’s very little separating him from the guys 10-15 less than him on the odds board.
Gdula: Maverick McNealy (-105) over Seamus Power (FanDuel) — McNealy holds an edge here in long-term form, and while Power has played Port Royal well (including last year’s win), McNealy has made both cuts in his career at this course and is playing some of his best golf ever.
Stewart: Andrew Putnam (-120) over Andrew Novak (Bet365) — In the battle of the Andrews, I’ll take Andrew Putnam. Putnam is ranked second in the field on approach and ninth in putting. Andrew Novak is ranked 12th on approach, but the flat stick can fail him. He’s losing almost a half stroke to the field on Bermudagrass greens per round. Putnam also has a much better short game and when that wind blows, you better be able to get it in the hole. Compare the two over four rounds and Putnam provides a winning ticket.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Jhonattan Vegas (-120) over Brendon Todd (Bet365) — The BetSperts Rabbit Hole allows you to filter many conditions in your model, and one of them is wind conditions—and when filtering by strokes gained data in wind over 10 miles per hour, Vegas is the second-best player in the field. Todd is ranked 80th. Vegas is obviously a pure ball-striker, the type of which you want to trust in extreme wind that’s expected this week. Todd will have to rely heavily on his short game, which is one of the best in the world, but he might be scrambling for pars all week—whereas Vegas’ piercing ball flight should give him an advantage in this one.
Powers, Golf Digest: Daniel Berger (+110) over Mackenzie Hughes (DraftKings) — If you refer to my pick to win paragraph above, you’ll see I argued that I’m betting on the best player in the field, when he’s playing his best, at 33-1. I think Berger is seriously close to playing his best again and he’s somehow an underdog here to Mackenzie Hughes, who has not played golf in over a month.
Lack: Ben Griffin (-130) over Sam Stevens (DraftKings) — This is an easy one, as Ben Griffin is my pick to win and Sam Stevens is an easy fade. Any time I can get my pick to win against my fade in a direct matchup, I’m grabbing it, even if I need to lay a little juice. Griffin’s course history and ability on approach deem him a far more reliable option than Stevens in this spot.
Matchup Results from the World Wide Technology Championship: Caddie: 1 for 1 (English (-105) over Griffin); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Berger (-120) over M. Kim); Mayo: 1 for 1 (English (-110) over Vegas); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Greyserman (-125) over Ghim); Lack: PUSH (Vegas (-110) over Mitchell); Gdula: 0 for 1; Powers: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Lack 26-12-3 (up 10.66 units); Gdula: 23-15-3 (up 5.11 units); Caddie: 24-16-0 (up 5.79 units); Hennessey: 20-15-6 (up 3.3 units); Mayo: 20-20-1 (down 0.52 units); Powers: 17-19-4 (down 2.19 units); Stewart: 17-22-2 (down 6.21 units)
Butterfield Bermuda Championship picks 2024: Top 10s
Caddie: Wesley Bryan (+450, DraftKings) — Bryan is playing in a group with his brother, which is special and always good motivation. Also, he is fighting for his card and has shown great results in island tournaments. He should have a good performance this week.
Mayo: Patrick Rodgers (+320, FanDuel) — Short game, spike putting and wedge play. If this ends up becoming a birdiefest if the wind doesn’t materialize at advertised, then Rodgers may be in trouble. If it’s a grind, Rodgers showed with his T-3/T-4 in his past two appearances in the gustier conditions he can lurk.
Gdula: Jacob Bridgeman (+360, FanDuel) — Bridgeman has made four straight cuts and has been top 15 in two of those. While he hasn’t played Port Royal, it’s still a new course, and Bridgeman’s short game is some of the best in the entire field.
Stewart: Lucas Glover (+260, DraftKings) — Lucas Glover is one of the best ball-strikers in the field. Coming off four straight top-25 results, I like his chances to contend again in this field. We all know it is going to blow, and Glover can control trajectory ranked third on approach and second in par-4 scoring in the field. That long flat stick will also help him remain stable when you roll the rock across these exposed greens. Ranked 62nd on the FEC points list, Lucas needs one more high finish to guarantee signature status at the start of the season.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Jacob Bridgeman (+360, FanDuel) — Oddsmakers have clued into Bridgeman’s play at the end of the season—with four top-20 finishes in his past seven starts. BetSperts’ data also indicates Bridgeman is the fourth-best player in the wind, with 15 measured rounds in 10-plus mph wind in 2024.
Powers, Golf Digest: Patrick Rodgers (+320, FanDuel) — My days of betting P-Rodge to win have been over for some time now but he can absolutely still grab you a top 10 here and there, something he’s done in this very tournament twice in the last four years.
Lack: Seamus Power (+190, DraftKings) — I don’t often like betting the tournament favorite to finish top 10, but Seamus Power was one of the last men off my betting card, and I am incredibly bullish on his chances to collect his second victory at Port Royal. Power is coming off a 13th-place finish at the Zozo Championship, and the Irishman ranks top five in this field on coastal courses, shorter courses, and SG/total in the Fall swing.
Top-10 results from the World Wide Technology Championship: Caddie: 1 for 1 (David Lipsky +1200); Gdula: 1 for 1 (Austin Eckroat +400); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Hennessey: 13 for 41 (up 67.35 units); Caddie: 8 for 40 (up 0.07 units); Gdula: 9 for 41 (down 0.3 units); Mayo: 7 for 41 (down 9.5 units); Powers: 7 for 41 (down 11.1 units); Stewart: 8 for 41 (down 11.42 units); Lack: 8 for 41 (down 13.45 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports
This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
