It’s been a season of close calls so far in this column. That continued last week with three of our experts on Ludvig Aberg at Torrey Pines, where we felt pretty good heading into the weekend. Some stomach issues and vomiting mid-round were not part of our handicap, however, so we were forced to take another L.
We know we’re on the right track, though, and this week’s signature event provides a great opportunity for a big outright ticket. Scottie Scheffler returns this week—which means he generates a huge amount of betting attention from oddsmakers. That juices up the odds for everyone else around him, making for a potentially nice payday if Scheffler doesn’t pick up where he left off in 2024.
The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of a tour coach reporting anonymously from the grounds of Pebble Beach, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well.
RELATED: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks 2025: Why our DFS expert is fading Rory McIlroy this week
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2025 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am:
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks 2025: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Swing Coach of the week: Justin Thomas (16-1, Bet365) — JT is trending toward something big. He played really nice in the desert couple weeks ago, and this is a good golf course for him. It’s good for shot makers and players who can work the ball. That’s JT, and it’s time he pays off this hard work with a signature victory.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Jason Day (35-1, FanDuel) — Except maybe Luke Donald at the RBC Heritage, no player has had so much success at a tournament without ever winning. Coming in striking his irons better than any point over the past three years, this could finally be Day’s year to check Pebble Beach off his career accomplishment list.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Collin Morikawa (14-1, FanDuel) — It’s only a matter of time until Morikawa wins with how good his game is at the moment, and an accuracy-centric setup with small greens makes sense for him to convert. He is the second-best ball-striker in the field over the past 50 rounds, behind just Scheffler, per datagolf.
Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Collin Morikawa (14-1, FanDuel) — We would all like to thank Scottie Scheffler for showing up this week. In doing so, he has increased the betting lines of every other player. Morikawa makes sense for a couple of reasons. First, his accuracy off the tee and on approach are why his odds are so low. Second, Collin is from California and played college golf in the Bay region. He can putt well on this Northern California Poa. Last, more than anyone near the top, he’s absolutely due for a win.
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Justin Thomas (16-1, Bet365) — Take JT’s driver out of his hands, and he’s at his best. Pebble Beach has a number of forced layups, similar to TPC Sawgrass, which can allow his iron play to cook. His short game is as good as anybody’s, and I can see him making Pebble Beach the site of his big return back ahead of major season.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Ludvig Aberg (20-1, Bet365) — If not for a case of the flu, it sure looked like Ludvig was going to run away with that one last week as the tournament favorite. Assuming he’ll be back to full health by Thursday, we’re getting one of the best players in this field who is in form and hungry to bounce back. The putter is certainly a concern but he should regress to the mean at Pebble, where he gained nearly three strokes on the greens last year en route to a second-place finish.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Justin Thomas (16-1, Bet365) — There are few players in this field more “due” for a win than Justin Thomas, and the putting woes that have kept him out of the winner’s circle might be starting to dissipate. Thomas has now gained strokes putting in both of his starts this year, and he remains one of the best players in the world inside 125 yards, a skill that is highly accentuated at Pebble Beach.
Past results: The panel had a total of 15 outright winners in 2024, besting our 2023 total of 13. We also had a strong season of matchups and our very own Stephen Hennessey absolutely cleaned up in the top-10 market. Let’s keep it rolling in ‘25.
Listen to Golf Digest’s weekly betting podcast, “The Loop,” where we interview the industry’s leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to “The Loop” wherever you get your podcasts!
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks 2025: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Tour coach: Sahith Theegala (70-1, FanDuel) — The narrative around Sahith Theegala has been that he’s struggled in 2025, but he’s made all three cuts and he’s on the West Coast where he has his PGA Tour victory (Napa) and plays his best golf. I like the fact he’s been on site early and working through any struggles he’s had. He’s at his best when he can be creative, which is what Pebble Beach mandates. This number is far too big.
Mayo: Mark Hubbard (150-1, FanDuel) — Long shots in a signature event aren’t generally the best bets, but Pebble Beach has had enough champions from the clouds to warrant a wager or two. Hubbard has been playing very solid golf to kick off 2025, and his general lack of elite driving skills should be less of a factor on this layout versus most others featuring the world top players. He picked up a T-3 in Bermuda (a similar style course) in the fall and has posted a top 20 each of the past two seasons in this event, including a T-4 in last year’s shortened tournament.
Gdula: Russell Henley (60-1, FanDuel) — Henley is the most accurate driver in the field over his last 50 rounds as well as a top-20 iron player and putter. He hasn’t had the best event form long-term but has the right game for it.
Stewart: Tom Kim (66-1, BetMGM) — Tom Kim is an excellent short course player. By winning at Wyndham, Kim showed his ability to go low on a classic layout. By winning TWICE at the Shriners in Vegas, Tom showed us he can just go low. The MVP of Monday night’s TGL match is striking his ball and playing with confidence. It doesn’t take much to fire him up, and I believe his exuberance is a perfect fit for a signature win. Kim came close at the Travelers on a similar small target test at TPC Highlands and should be a big part of this winner conversation come Sunday.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Russell Henley (60-1, FanDuel) — Henley’s due for a signature win like this. He’s exemplary on approach shots from 125 yards and in, so Pebble should be a great fit for his accuracy and wedge play success. We know he can contend on West Coast Poa, like we saw at the 2021 U.S. Open.
Powers, Golf Digest: Will Zalatoris (55-1, Bet365) — Willy Z burned everybody last week with his 11th hour withdrawal, but that’s no reason to not be on him this week. He’s finally started to turn a corner over the last few months, with three top-13 finishes in his last five starts, and he’s a solid poa putter. If you’re looking for solid course history, he doesn’t have it, but I’m willing to overlook that in the hopes of hitting on a spike Zal week at a nice 55-1 number.
Lack: Taylor Pendrith (55-1, FanDuel) — Taylor Pendrith cashed a top-10 bet for us last week, and I see no reason to hop off now at another golf course that should fit his skill-set nicely. Pendrith is an excellent wedge player and putter, and he possesses the power off the tee to dominate with driver at Spyglass Hill. The Canadian finished seventh at this event last year, and I would expect him to improve upon that finish in 2025.
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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks 2025: Players We’re Fading
Swing coach: Viktor Hovland (40-1, BetRivers) — I’ll stick with my theme on this column. Last week we faded Max Homa to success. Viktor Hovland is in between figuring it out without working with Joe Mayo. It might work out for him, but I’m not a fan of sudden changes when you’ve had success with that coach. Changes take time, and so I think we’re better off waiting and playing against him in some matchups (see below).
Mayo: Scottie Scheffler (+400, FanDuel) — There are other formats to use Scheffler this week to capitalize on the uncertainly of his game. How rusty is he going to be following a hand injury? He could be fine and destroy the field, sure, but you’re not getting an odds discount to find out.
Gdula: Rory McIlroy (11-1, FanDuel) — McIlroy’s form is quite good on the DP World Tour, but this field is loaded, and the history at Pebble Beach isn’t where I’d want it to be at a number this short.
Stewart: Justin Thomas (14-1, DraftKings) — This is an interesting fade. Justin Thomas should be the perfect pick for Pebble Beach with his world-class wedge game. No other player on tour can control his wedge swing like JT. Thomas is long enough, the iron play is great, but to win at Pebble you must be able to putt on Poa Annua. Pundits always write about the Bermudagrass grain, but Poa Annua will drive you equally nuts. This is an elite birdiefest, and my fear is that when Justin is in contention, he won’t be able to close out the final stretch because the Poa puts him a couple shots behind.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Scottie Scheffler (+400, FanDuel) — I applaud Scottie Scheffler for playing this week, just a couple weeks after returning to full shots. He will be more live at Bay Hill and pretty much every other venue on tour. I’d be willing to take a matchup against him based on his lack of golf recently.
Powers, Golf Digest: Hideki Matsuyama (20-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Deki hit the ball great (again) last week but the putter finally cooled off and sunk him to a 32nd-place finish.
Lack: Sungjae Im (22-1, BetRivers) — I will continue to fade Sungjae Im at such short numbers in the outright market until it burns me, and I do not expect the 26-year-old to break his winless draught at a course he possesses such poor course history at. In two appearances at Pebble Beach, Im has missed the cut and finished 66th. This is far too expensive of a price to a play for Im this week.
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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks 2025: Matchups
Swing coach: Tommy Fleetwood (-164) over Viktor Hovland (Bet365) — I understand this is a big number to lay, but I endorse doing it. Tommy is a ball-striking genius playing his best golf, whereas Viktor is still searching. I think he’s a great top-10 pick, whereas Hovland contending would surprise me.
Mayo: Thomas Detry (+110) over Adam Scott (Coolbet) — Detry’s prowess on Poa the past two years shouldn’t be overlooked. This is a 50/50 coin flip and you’re getting +110 for one of the sides.
Gdula: Tom Kim (-105) over Maverick McNealy (FanDuel) — Kim’s putter isn’t as good as McNealy’s, but there’s a huge ball-striking and accuracy advantage in his favor.
Stewart: Wyndham Clark (-125) over Jordan Spieth (Bet365) — Jordan Spieth had wrist surgery in September. He hasn’t played a competitive round since August, and I saw him testing various drivers here at the AT&T in his practice rounds. Spieth’s record here is impressive, but I’m going to take the defending champion Wyndham Clark instead. Clark can certainly get it done in Monterey and with plenty of recent reps, he’s my pick for this 72-hole match.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Rory McIlroy (+162) over Scottie Scheffler (Bet365) — Rory’s course fit is pretty awful at Pebble Beach, where driver is taken out of his hand on most par 4s. But this is too large of a number to ignore against someone who’s playing his first real tournament in months.
Powers, Golf Digest: Wyndham Clark (-120) over Jordan Spieth (Bet365) — The thing about Jordan Spieth, who is coming off wrist surgery and has not played since mid-August, is that he could be seven under through seven holes on Thursday or seven over through seven holes and no in between. He’s an impossible man to trust when healthy, let alone when he’s coming off a significant injury. We all hope he returns to his former self but I don’t think it’s going to be this week, which is why I’m attacking him in this matchup and backing the defending champ in Wyndam Clark, who already has two starts under his belt in 2025, including a 15th at Sentry.
Lack: Tom Hoge (+100) over Harris English (DraftKings) — Tom Hoge will always hold a special place in my heart for his outright victory at Pebble Beach in 2022, and he also finished fourth at this event last year. One of the absolute best wedge players in the world, I will gladly back Tom Hoge as an underdog over last week’s champion in Harris English, who might be due for a bit of a letdown.
Matchup Results from the Farmers: Powers: 1 for 1 (Sungjae Im (+115) over Matsuyama); Swing coach: 1 for 1 (Detry (-110) over Berger, R1); Stewart: 1 for 1 (Spaun (+115) over Kitayama); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Day (-125) over Kitayama); Mayo: 0 for 1; Gdula: 0 for 1; Lack: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Powers: 4-0-0 (up 4.15 units); Swing coach: 1-0-0 (up 0.91 units); Stewart: 2-2-0 (down 0.02 units); Hennessey: 2-2-0 (down 0.46 units); Mayo: 1-3-0 (down 2 units); Gdula: 1-3-0 (down 2.17 units); Lack: 0-4-0 (down 4 units)
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks 2025: Top 10s
Swing coach: Sungjae Im (+240, Bet365) — This guy is a walking ATM. Keep riding him off this strong of top finishes with two top-five finishes in three starts.
Mayo: Justin Thomas (+200, Bet365) — two of his past three starts, JT has finally started rolling the ball with some consistent success on the greens. When his game hit the nadir, putting was the main culprit. If he has truly figured this out a win shouldn’t be out of the question. And should lead to another top 10.
Gdula: Tommy Fleetwood (+280, FanDuel) — Fleetwood’s form on the DP World Tour has been stellar, and he’s gained strokes on approach in 10 straight events dating back to last year. He’s an accurate driver with great irons —he’ll just need to make putts.
Stewart: Ludvig Aberg (+200, Bet365) — For a very young player, Ludvig Åberg plays a variety of courses well. Åberg won at the RSM, an old-world lowcountry layout and finished runner-up at Augusta National. His skill set just works when the targets are small, and the driver can be a separation weapon. All of these courses are quite different, but Ludvig drives the ball like Rory and hits his wedges like Collin. That combination is why he played in a Ryder Cup before his first major championship. I’m taking the kid and 10 places at Pebble Beach.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Patrick Cantlay (+200, FanDuel) — I think this is a great place to bet Cantlay. He’s played well at Pebble Beach before, and he can play position golf with the best of the elite players. In this small field, I think he’s a near lock to finish near the top of the board.
Powers, Golf Digest: Adam Scott (+450, FanDuel) — As those who have been paying attention know, Adam Scott is a sneaky-good putter now. And this week he gets to play on his favorite surface—Poa. Coming off a top-15 at the Sentry, where he gained in every area except off the tee, it feels like the Aussie is properly flying under the radar at Pebble, where he went nine under over the final two rounds a year ago to tie for 20th.
Lack: Patrick Cantlay (+200, DraftKings) — Patrick Cantlay has been a model of consistency at Pebble Beach with six top-25 finishes in eight appearances, including four top-12 finishes in a row. I will gladly back Cantlay to continue his strong play.
Top-10 results from the Farmers: Gdula: 1 for 1 (Taylor Pendrith +360); Lack: 1 for 1 (Taylor Pendrith +360); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from this season: Mayo: 2 for 4 (up 12.33 units); Lack: 3 for 4 (up 9.4 units); Gdula: 2 for 4 (up 4 units); Stewart: 1 for 4 (down 1.25 units); Hennessey: 0 for 4 (down 4 units); Powers: 0 for 4 (down 4 units); Tour coach: 0 for 1 (down 1 unit)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports
This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
