We’re officially 250-plus days until Masters Week. It’s a sad realization that major season is over, but we have the finishing stretch of the PGA Tour season upon us—which means more opportunities to cash some tickets.
Will players experience an Open Championship hangover after a grind last week? Consider Tony Finau won at the 3M Open in 2022 after playing The Open, as did Lee Hodges last year. But neither guy was in contention. Seeing how someone like Billy Horschel, who played in the final group for the first time in a major, can rebound this week is a hot button topic this week. Many of our experts below are fading him. There are a few players being touted by our panel who were over at Royal Troon but went home early. We’ll see if the trend from the past two years continues.
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Our betting panel is comprised of a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds of TPC Twin Cities, Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel, Andy Lack of RunPureSports.com, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line. Stewart, our newest member of the panel, is our new betting content partner as well. Gdula and Mayo are on the same outright bet below, which is usually an auto-bet. We hope you can cash some bets along with us this week.
Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2024 3M Open.
3M Open picks 2024: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Anonymous Caddie Picker of the week: Cam Davis (35-1, FanDuel) — Fresh off being first alternate at the British and not getting in while being ranked in the top 50 in the world, Cam Davis will be the most rested of the top-tier players this week. Having to fly home early, he’s ready to compete and get some vengeance at another birdie-fest after winning the Rocket Mortgage a few starts ago.
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Akshay Bhatia (20-1, DraftKings) — Akshay’s numbers are hurt a bit by actually playing in The Open, but few are on the run like him at the moment. Those with better than goldfish memories will recall he three-putted the 72nd hole in Detroit to lose by one, a week after going out late at Travelers and coming T-5. His accuracy should assist in avoiding the wet landmines, and TPC Twin Cities can be attacked from the short grass by the elite iron players. Which is Bhatia’s biggest skill.
Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Akshay Bhatia (20-1, DraftKings) — Historically at TPC Twin Cities, the best putter out of the best ball-strikers emerges victorious. Bhatia is the only golfer in the field to rank top 15 in both strokes gained/ball-striking and strokes gained/putting over the past 50 rounds.
Keith Stewart, Read The Line: Erik van Rooyen (40-1, FanDuel) — A birdiefest is any tournament where players will convert 20 or more sub-par scores in 72 holes. Erik van Rooyen excels in these events. Since winning in Mexico in November at 27-under par (birdiefest!), van Rooyen has played five more scoring shootouts. Erik has four top-eight results and a top 25 in those tourneys. EVR can make birdies! Combine that with four years at the University of Minnesota just 20 miles from TPC Twin Cities, and there’s an edge. Van Rooyen will have tremendous support this week from the crowds and friends. He loves this agronomy and can capture the 3M with his prolific ability to go low.
Watch the below video for our favorite bets and players we’re fading for the 2024 3M Open:
Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. managing editor: Erik van Rooyen (40-1, FanDuel) — As our Keith Stewart pointed out in his Monday piece, Erik Van Rooyen has excelled in birdie-fests all season. His off-the-tee prowess can be a separator—he’s gained 2.5 strokes on average since April. And the approach play was hot in Scotland, gaining 5.5 strokes into those tricky Tom Doak greens. The Minnesota storyline is always emphasized with EVR at TPC Twin Cities—but the storyline that I’m really eyeing: This is his first 3M Open since his former college teammate at University of Minnesota, Jon Trasamar, passed away. That might be the little extra motivation he needs to get across the line for a second win this season.
Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Rico Hoey (75-1, FanDuel) — After missing four straight cuts, Hoey has found something, going T-6 at the Rocket Mortgage, T-26 at the John Deere, T-2 at the ISCO Championship (lost in playoff) and T-8 at the Barracuda. The 28-year-old is one of the longest players on tour, ranking ninth in strokes-gained/off-the-tee, eighth in total driving and 20th in driving distance. Bombers have fared well at the 3M, historically, with Matthew Wolff, Cameron Champ and Tony Finau among the winners in the last five years. Hoey’s red hot with the driver right now. Why not him?
Andy Lack, Run Pure Sports and Inside Golf podcast: Keith Mitchell (35-1, FanDuel) — Outside of Tony Finau, Keith Mitchell has proven to be the strongest ball-striker in this entire field, and he returns to a golf course where he has recorded back-to-back top-fives. Putting remains Mitchell’s weakness, but he has found considerable success on TPC Twin Cities’ greens in the past and performed admirably at similar water-heavy golf courses such as PGA National.
Past results: We have another winner, with Stephen Hennessey and Andy Lack correctly predicting Davis Thompson’s maiden victory at 28-1 at the John Deere Classic. That’s Hennessey’s second of the year in the column (Akshay Bhatia 65-1 at the Valero) and Lack’s first. Our anonymous caddie leads the way with four while Christopher Powers and Pat Mayo check in next with two each.
Listen to Golf Digest’s weekly betting podcast, “The Loop,” (above) where we interview the industry’s leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to “The Loop” wherever you get your podcasts!
3M Open picks 2024: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Caddie: Austin Eckroat (60-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Eckroat is a top-tier talent and one of the best players in this field. At better than 50-1, the value is too good for us to pass on a flyer.
Mayo: Austin Eckroat (60-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — His results have been on the decline since his breakthrough win at PGA National in March, but the ball-striking numbers are back on the rise. He’s lost off the tee and on approach just twice in 12 starts since the win. The biggest factor for Eckroat has been strength of competition. His win got him into all the majors and signature events where he has not fared well to put it kindly. I scanned the list for the 3M, this is not a strong field.
Gdula: Doug Ghim (70-1, FanDuel) — Ghim fits the profile of being one of the best ball-strikers (eighth) and tee-to-green players (eighth) in the field over the past 50 rounds. He just needs to make putts, and the greens at TPC Twin Cities rate out pretty easy to putt on if you look closely at the data. If the putter warms up, he can make a run—like a lot of longshots at this course have.
Stewart: Ben Griffin (50-1, FanDuel) — Ben Griffin is another player who benefits when sub-par scoring increases. The main reason why is Griffin’s ability to knock it close on approach and convert. Ben is a top 10 approach player in this field. That skill will serve him well as the last five winners have gained an average of 7.6 strokes with their iron game at the 3M. Griffin is also great on the greens. These two complementary skills help him excel in shootouts—runner-up in Canada, fifth at John Deere, eighth at the RSM Classic, ninth at the American Express and 14th at Corales all in the past eight months. The average winning score of those events is 25-under par. Griffin can go deep and will in Minnesota.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Pierceson Coody (110-1, FanDuel) — The former UT standout nearly got his first win at another driver-heavy birdie-fest, the ISCO, losing in a playoff. We know the 3M Open has been great to recent college stars, as I remember hitting Matthew Wolff’s victory in 2019. Coody’s on the precipice of stardom, and at this price, it’s worth banking on his breakout performance.
Powers, Golf Digest: Cameron Champ (175-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Bombers. Bombers. Bombers. That’s who I’m betting this week. Champ is a former champ here who can drive and putt his way into the mix. That’s good enough for me at 175-1.
Lack: Andrew Novak (80-1, Bet365) — The keys to success at TPC Twin Cities are keeping the ball in play off the tee and spiking either on approach or with the flat-stick. Novak is one of the rare players who has the ability to heat up both with his irons and on the greens, and this two-pronged skill-set is a large reason why he has already recorded eight top-30 finishes and four top-10s in 17 starts this season. This might be the week Novak puts it all together.
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3M Open picks 2024: Players We’re Fading
Caddie: Billy Horschel (25-1, FanDuel) — Billy’s a high energy guy, and it takes a ton of it to be in the final group of his first major championship. It comes with confidence, but it also brings with it a strong chance of a letdown this week ahead of a long couple of weeks leading into the playoffs.
Mayo: Sam Burns (18-1, FanDuel) — Tough to go with any player who was in the thick of a major overseas less than four days previous.
Gdula: Billy Horschel (25-1, FanDuel) — Horschel did finish T-13 here last year while losing strokes from approach play and after missing the cut at The Open the week prior. This time, he’s coming off a tough four rounds at Royal Troon and a T-2 finish.
Stewart: Sahith Theegala (20-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — About half the field had a rough Open Championship. Sahith Theegala shot 77-79 at Royal Troon to miss the cut by eight strokes. Sahith lost strokes in every major strokes gained category. He played in brutal conditions, but that blow to the confidence has an effect. Early in the week, he was testing putters in Minnesota. After all, in three starts at TPC Twin Cities, Sahith has three MCs. Something about this layout doesn’t suit his eye. Coming off a questionable week in Scotland, I’ll pass on the talented Theegala and see if a couple weeks off before the playoffs can help him break through in a bigger event.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Billy Horschel (25-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — This feels like the ultimate pros vs. Joes week with Billy Ho. The Joes will bet him after seeing him front and center at The Open. The pros seem to be unanimously fading him. Sometimes the Joes have the last laugh—it’ll be interesting to see if that’s the case this week. I’ll be in the camp of fading him in some matchups if we can get someone in the 30- to 40-1 range against him.
Powers, Golf Digest: Billy Horschel (25-1, FanDuel) — Feels like an easy one here. Maybe he rides the wave to another win, but I imagine the mental, physical and emotional letdown will be real. Royal Troon, TPC Twin Cities is not.
Lack: Sahith Theegala (20-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — While I cannot judge Sahith Theegala too harshly for struggling in the wind at The Open, I have considerable concerns about his history at TPC Twin Cities. Theegala has failed to make a cut in three appearances at the 3M Open, and his lack of accuracy off the tee presents significant problems at a course where water comes into play on 15 of 18 holes.
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3M Open picks 2024: Matchups
Caddie: Ben Griffin (-120) over Mac Meissner (Bet365) — Meissner is on a solid run, but Ben Griffin is a better player here and has sustained his success for longer this season than Mac.
Mayo: Akshay Bhatia (-115) over Sahith Theegala (Bet365) — I worry Sahith’s wonky driver might get a bit too wayward in Minnesota.
Gdula: Adam Svensson (-115) over Thirston Lawrence (FanDuel) — Svensson is a top-10 iron player in the field the past 50 rounds, and Lawrence is barely inside the top 100. Svensson’s putting is weak, yes, but these greens are easy to putt on, statistically-speaking.
Stewart: Luke Clanton (-120) over Keith Mitchell (Bet365) — Keith Mitchell carries a ton of betting expectations this week. An impeccable ball-striker all season, Cashmere Keith has one top 10 since March and three missed cuts in his last four starts. Keith cannot putt. Luke Clanton has played the polar opposite of that record. In his four starts this summer, Clanton is gaining over seven strokes on the field each week (on average). TPC Twin Cities is a fantastic fit for him as Luke lets the driver fly long and straight. He’s in full prep mode for the U.S. Amateur, so you know he’ll be motivated to perform. Take the kid to beat Keith in this head-to-head matchup.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Akshay Bhatia (-115) over Sahith Theegala (Bet365) — The case Keith made for fading Sahith is a strong one, and any time Mayo and Gdula are betting the same player outright, you have to follow. That makes this one a slam dunk.
Powers, Golf Digest: Patrick Rodgers (+100) over Kurt Kitayama (Bet365) — Kitayama has not posted a top 10 since February, whereas Rodgers is coming off a T-5 at the Barracuda, his second top 20 in his last four starts. Will roll with the in-form player at even money.
Lack: Tony Finau (-140) over Sahith Theegala (Southpoint) — I’m expecting Tony Finau to bounce back in a big way following a disappointing missed cut at the Open Championship, and I have far more faith in his ability to conquer TPC Twin Cities than Theegala. Finau has recorded three top-10 finishes in five appearances at the Palmer design, including a win in 2022, while Theegala has failed to make a single cut at this track.
Matchup Results from the British Open: Lack: 1 for 1 (Cantlay (-120) over C. Smith); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Morikawa (-120) over DeChambeau); Powers: 1 for 1 (Lowry (+105) over Matsuyama); Gdula: 1 for 1 (Henley (-120) over Homa); Mayo: 0 for 1; Caddie: 0 for 1; Stewart: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from this season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Lack 19-8-2 (up 8.65 units); Mayo: 17-11-1 (up 5.61 units); Caddie: 17-11-0 (up 4.13 units); Hennessey: 16-9-4 (up 5.4 units); Gdula: 15-11-3 (up 2.18 units); Powers: 14-12-2 (up 1.74 units); Stewart: 12-16-1 (down 5.21 units)
3M Open picks 2024: Top 10s
Caddie: Rico Hoey (+490, FanDuel) — Rico is on a heater right now. In his last four weeks he has lost in a playoff with two other top-10s and a 26th. He has all but locked up his card for next year and can just continue the momentum. He has moved almost inside the top 100 in the world and at these odds, which seems like great value considering he has top-10ed in three of his last four.
Mayo: Tom Hoge (+290, FanDuel) — Irons and putting. Outside of a few outliers this has been the cheat code to the top of the leaderboard at the 3M. We know Hoge can light it up with his approaches, and he’s been better than average on the greens. Seems like the proper combo.
Gdula: Tom Hoge (+290, FanDuel) — Hoge is the only golfer in the field to gain more than a stroke per round from his approach play over the past 50 rounds, and his gap on everyone other than Finau is pretty large there. He’s accurate and has played TPC Twin Cities well enough to be in the mix again.
Stewart: Jhonattan Vegas (+750, BetRivers) — Jhonny Vegas’ game is peaking at a very good time. TPC Twin Cities could not be a better fit for the mighty Venezuelan. Jhonny is a top-three ranked ball-striker in this field when you combine off the tee and approach. Vegas finished runner-up in 2021 at the 3M Open and is coming off three straight top-30 results. Rested since the John Deere, he will have more energy to go low than a majority of the field. In 26 career top 10s, 17 of them were in easy scoring events.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Austin Eckroat (+490, FanDuel) — Our Andy Lack gave a good shout on Eckroat in our DFS column. Eckroat won at the Cognizant Classic, which is a good corollary course to this equally water-logged venue. Eckroat is long and straight off the tee and can get hot with the irons, which is a great recipe to the top of the leader board.
Powers, Golf Digest: Nick Dunlap (+410, FanDuel) — Let’s go right back to the two-time PGA Tour winner here. A birdie-maker who hits it plenty far. That’s the recipe at TPC Twin Cities.
Lack: Chan Kim (+450, FanDuel) — Chan Kim is coming off another top-30 finish at the Barracuda Championship where he gained over seven strokes ball-striking, and the 34-year-old has now gained over a stroke off the tee and on approach in four straight starts. Kim has quietly turned into one of the most consistent ball-strikers on tour over the past few months, and I expect him to continue his strong play at TPC Twin Cities.
Top-10 results from the British Open: Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Shane Lowry +400); Everybody else: 0 for 1.
Top-10 results from this season: Hennessey: 11 for 29 (up 71.35 units); Mayo: 5 for 29 (down 4 units); Powers: 5 for 29 (down 4.6 units); Gdula: 5 for 29 (down 4.9 units); Caddie: 5 for 28 (down 6.05 units); Lack: 5 for 29 (down 11.55 units); Stewart: 4 for 29 (down 15.82 units)
About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
Brandon Gdula, managing editor and analyst for numberFire, a FanDuel daily-fantasy analysis company, recently won the 2018 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year. Gdula also co-hosts the DFS Heat Check podcast. Follow him on Twitter: @gdula13.
Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. As well as contributing to Golf Digest, Andy is also the head of golf content for Run Pure Sports, where he covers PGA Tour betting and daily fantasy. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports
This article was originally published on golfdigest.com
